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1. Thursday, February 2, 2006 7:50 AM
jordan Bush is a Dolt - so how can the economy be good?

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Saw this at The Times Online

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2020738,00.html 

The President is a dolt – so how can America be such a success story?
Anatole Kaletsky

TWO CEREMONIAL events occurred in Washington on Tuesday evening that shone a spotlight on one of the most important but paradoxical features of a modern democratic society.

The more widely reported was President Bush’s State of the Union address, a weak and defensive speech even by his undemanding standards. At the other end of Washington, meanwhile, Alan Greenspan, the retiring chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, was bidding farewell to the institution whose skilful management of US monetary policy made him the dominant figure in the world economy for the past 18 years. What connects these two events is a paradox that has baffled many people, especially in Europe, ever since George W. Bush became President.

For the past five years, America has been led by a president who is clearly not up to the job — a man who is not just inarticulate, but lacking in judgment, intelligence, integrity, charisma or staying power. Yet America as a nation seems to be stronger, more prosperous and self-confident than ever. (Jordan: For sake of argument, we'll assume that Bush truly is a frickin' idiot )

As the State of the Union address made clear, President Bush has more or less given up on all the grand goals that were supposed to define his presidency: social security reform, peace in the Middle East, even the axis of evil doctrine, which was supposed to disarm North Korea and Iran. Most embarrassingly, President Bush seems to have given up on capturing Osama bin Laden or bringing to justice the perpetrators of 9/11.

But now comes the paradox. While America has been run by one of the most doltishly ineffectual governments in history, it has forged ever further ahead of Europe in terms of wealth, science, technology, artistic creativity and cultural dominance.

Why does America’s prosperity and self-confidence seem to bear so little relationship to the competence of its government? The obvious answer is that America, founded on a libertarian theory of minimal government, has always had low expectations of politicians. In America, it is not just business that thrives independently of government, perhaps even in spite of government. The same is also true of other areas of excellence which in Britain are considered quintessentially in the public domain — higher education, leading-edge science, culture and academic research. Because Americans expect so little of their government, they are rarely disappointed. They do not slump into German-style angst when their governments fail to find solutions to the nation’s problems.

This anarchic spirit was summed up by Ronald Reagan: “The ten most dangerous words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help you’.” In Europe, by contrast, the public expect government to solve all problems, and the media try to hold politicians accountable for everything. The result is a culture of dependency that extends far beyond the welfare state, to business and to the worlds of education, medicine, arts and science. (Jordan Note: this is exactly why the US must stay away from socialism as much as possible - dependency on govt kills - literally and figuratively.)

The American approach has a powerful advantage rooted in human nature: private sector activity is powered by economic incentives, while the State must operate by rules and sanctions. Since incentives, as Adam Smith observed, are much more likely to stimulate creativity and effort than sanctions, private enterprise tends to achieve ambitious objectives, while government often fails.

But while the weakness of US government may in some ways have helped to widen the gulf of achievement between America and Europe, there is another and opposite side to the story — which is where we must return to Mr Greenspan. American politicians may be incompetent and venal, even by European standards, but this is not true of the public realm as a whole. America has a host of public institutions, ranging from government bodies such as the Federal Reserve and the National Institutes of Health to charities such as the great universities, museums and hospitals, that are driven by a sense of public service that puts British and European bureaucracies to shame.

The American system recognises that a capitalist economy has areas of market failure where incentives alone will not produce socially desirable results. But American public institutions try to maximise private activity and incentives, rather than rein them in, within their realms — whether it is universities encouraging professors to start businesses, or health administrators creating incentives for drugs companies to do medical research. It is in this respect that Mr Greenspan most clearly represented the genius of the American system.

Mr Greenspan realised that his job at the Fed was not just to control inflation, the goal that other central bankers recognise. His real task, he explained last year, was “to achieve the maximum sustainable economic growth, with price stability pursued as a necessary condition to promote that goal”. Although a passionate advocate of small government, he realised that well-judged public intervention was necessary, not just to maintain stable prices but also to create the incentives for private enterprise to accelerate economic growth. He also understood that the best way to deal with the imbalances in the changing world economy was by supporting growth and allowing the greatest possible freedom for financial markets. Private investors, he believed, were more likely to find solutions to the complex challenges created by globalisation than central bankers or politicians.

But while Mr Greenspan believed that private incentives solve economic problems more successfully than government diktats, he also understood that capitalism works at its best if it operates in a sound, simple framework of ambitiously pro-growth monetary policy. His genius was to understand that public policy could be simultaneously minimalist and ambitious. In a sense, this is the genius of the American system. And this is why America does not need a genius in the White House. 


Jordan .

 
2. Thursday, February 2, 2006 11:01 PM
JVSCant RE: Bush is a Dolt - so how can the economy be good?


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Seems to me that the economy is coasting on indiscriminate credit and corporate malfeasance.  If the bubble doesn't burst once the chips are called in, I'll be proven wrong.

Also seems to me that small-scale local business is the stable course for the future.  But then, as a Canadian -- and therefore socially-insulated compared to the average American -- I can afford to experiment a bit with my RRSP investments.

  


 
3. Friday, February 3, 2006 5:36 AM
jordan RE: Bush is a Dolt - so how can the economy be good?

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Jamie, you are about 6 or 7 years behind with this statement - "Seems to me that the economy is coasting on indiscriminate credit and corporate malfeasance. If the bubble doesn't burst once the chips are called in, I'll be proven wrong."

That's what was happening in the late 90s. The corporate malfeasance was happening mostly in the late 90s as the companies were making it look like things were going better than they were. And then the tech bubble burst too (thus the Enron and other huge scandals).

The economy has stabilized from the surge of the 90s (and that's why the polls continue to show that people think the economy is bad because they are comparing it to the false rise of the 90s which you may remember is what I've talked about here time and time again - reminding people that the 90s economy was not as good as we think it was).

Now there is one huge problem in the consumer portion of the economy - growing credit card debt. There are two things that will kill the US economy - rise in oil prices, and credit card debt ballooning so big that people can't get out of it (which was what happened in the 90s and continues to happen).

But all of that is not what this article was talking about - it was talking about how the US economy can continue to grow and expand without the help of a "stupid" President because the US doesn't rely on the govt to give us what we need. We rely on ourselves and we make sure we try and have a "seperation of business and state" as much as possible. And the more the US citizen pushes for a society along the lines of a socialistic country, that's the moment we start going down the path of a poor economy.


Jordan .

 
4. Friday, February 3, 2006 6:54 AM
danwhy RE: Bush is a Dolt - so how can the economy be good?


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But Canada doesn't have a "poor" economy, in fact, it has regularly been outpacing the US since Bush took power.


"We cannot allow a mine shaft gap"

 
5. Friday, February 3, 2006 7:38 AM
jordan RE: Bush is a Dolt - so how can the economy be good?

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Canada is the only exception to the above article - BUT this article was about European countries and their dependencies on govt. But one of the reasons why Canada has been outpacing the US IMO is because of the recession the US had in 2000, and then the huge drop we had post 9/11 which took about 2 years to recover from. I think you'll find that the US economy is going to start out-pacing the Canadian economy before Bush's term ends (as long as nothing horrible happens and oil prices don't go much higher).

Speaking of US economy - looks like we are added almost 200,000 jobs last month and our unemployment rate is now at 4.7 which is the lowest since July 2001 which is when the recession really kicked in. (Remember how the Dems kept comparing Bush to Hoover and how he had a negative job numbers in the run up to the election? HA HA HA HA!!!) The US economy is running on all pistons right now and as long as the oil price doesn't go much higher we should be okay.

There's no doubt in my mind that dependence on govt hurts that country's economy in the long run.

BTW - looks like Canada can thank NAFTA for your economy too - take a look at this:

http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/canada/index.html 

 Trade accounts for roughly a third of GDP. Canada has signed two agreements with US- 1989 US-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (which includes Mexico), which has brought a trade boom for Canada. The relationship, which Canada enjoys with US, is a major defining factor for Canada's dramatic increase in trade. The US and Canada have the world's largest trading relationship and US absorbs more than 85% of Canadian exports. 


Jordan .

 
6. Friday, February 3, 2006 8:08 AM
danwhy RE: Bush is a Dolt - so how can the economy be good?


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I agree that free trade has been a huge help, the price of oil is also very beneficial to Canada.  I do wish the US economy well and am glad that your "dumb" president isn't holding you back in that regard.


"We cannot allow a mine shaft gap"

 
7. Friday, February 3, 2006 8:38 AM
jordan RE: Bush is a Dolt - so how can the economy be good?

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If it wasn't for the GOP (and Bush 41) pushing hard for it, NAFTA would probably not have happened. Luckily, Clinton was smart enough to go against the majority of his party and sign it into law. At hte time, the Democrats (backed by unions) were fighting hard to keep NAFTA from becoming law afraid that it would end up reducing jobs and incomes in the long run.

Here's a refresher cource on what was going on in 1993 when this was voted on. Senate passed it by 68-31 (large amount of Dems voting against - but some in the GOP also were against it) and 234-200 in the House (not quite sure what the breakdown was but if my memory serves me right, it came down to party lines with enough people in support coming over).

http://www.thenewamerican.com/tna/1993/vo09no25/vo09no25_sellout.htm

And another - http://www-tech.mit.edu/V113/N34/nafta.34w.txt.html 


Jordan .

 

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