Yeah, I'm still compiling my bets from all who expect Hillary to be the 2008 Democratic candidate for the presidency. But in the meantime, for the realists and for those who would like any kind of chance at having a Democrat in the White House, here's another bright gal (Meg Hirschberg of that all important state, New Hampshire) who sees the writing on the wall. I'm not saying Warner WILL be the pick. I'm just saying it would be smart of the Blue Team to nominate him. When was the last time the Blue Team did anything smart, you ask? Well, things could change. And I'm all for that.

Susan

The Sunday Times February 12, 2006

Governor Nobody sneaks up on Hillary
Sarah Baxter, Manchester, New Hampshire

HILLARY CLINTON would make an excellent president, according to Meg Hirschberg, whose husband runs a hugely successful organic yoghurt company in New Hampshire: “She’s amazing and brilliant and smart and lovely.”

So that’s a vote for Clinton in 2008, then? Not at all. Hirschberg is thinking of backing Mark Warner, the former governor of Virginia, a likable, low-key, moderate Democrat who won a traditionally Republican state and, by all accounts, ran it competently. At this stage, it is enough of a recommendation.

“I don’t know a thing about him and I don’t care,” Hirschberg said last week as Warner listened to her husband explaining the finer points of organic farming. “I just want somebody with decent values who can win. It’s nothing to do with Hillary personally. It’s irrational and unfair, but she is polarising.”

Hirschberg, 49, has seen one Democratic hopeful after another pass through the Stonyfield yoghurt farm. New Hampshire, the state where the first primaries for the presidential nominations take place, is eagerly courted by White House contenders. With 1,000 days to go before the next presidential election, the parade of candidates has already begun.

Bill Clinton — to whom Warner, as a southern governor, is often compared — toured the same organic company in the early 1990s on the day he was exposed as a Vietnam draft dodger. He lay down in the cooler room, stared at the ceiling pipes and thought his bid for the presidency was over.

Hillary’s campaign has not even officially started, yet some Democrats are already writing off her chances. Husband Bill, the comeback kid, went on to survive a number of near-death experiences and it may be just a blip on her road to the White House. But for the first time she faces a serious rival.

The lanky, toothy Warner, 51, was the keynote speaker on Friday at the annual 100 Club dinner of Democrat officials, party bigwigs and fundraisers in New Hampshire, the biggest event in their political calendar.

At the tables the chatter was all about Clinton v Warner. “I love Hillary Clinton. I love her! I’d be so happy if she became president, but I worry that the Republicans won’t let her win,” said Wendy DuPuy, 34. “They will smear her so viciously, they will stop at nothing.”

DuPuy has reluctantly concluded that it would be better if Clinton did not stand for the White House. “Strategically, I would rather she stayed in the Senate and remained a strong voice for Democrats there.”

Before entering politics, Warner made a $200m fortune as co-founder of Nextel, the telecommunications company, because he foresaw the demand for cell phones. In what will surely become a regular campaign soundbite he said at the dinner that politics was “not a question of left versus right or liberal versus conservative; it is the future versus the past”. It was a way of advertising his own credentials while subtly labelling the former first lady a has-been.

If there were few high points, there were also few lows in his modest speech about the need for national unity and effective government. DuPuy declared herself satisfied. “He was great. He sounded humble, human and he speaks in a way you can relate to.”

Some confessed to mild disappointment. “He was okay,” said one, who did not wish to be named. Another, Stuart West, said Warner was too right-wing. “He avoided gay marriage and women’s rights. And did he condemn the war? No.”

Warner hopes to become America’s Tony Blair, running to the right of the Democrat party to win the support of disaffected Republicans and independents.

“The sensible centre is wide open in this country,” he said. “There’s a lot the Democrats can learn from Tony Blair. He is an extraordinary world leader and a man of great conviction.”

For his part, Warner has learnt not to question the decision to invade Iraq. As a former governor, rather than a senator like Clinton, he does not have to explain away any embarrassing votes for or against military intervention.

At a time of war, one of Warner’s greatest areas of vulnerability is his lack of foreign policy and national security expertise. He is being coached by several former Clinton White House officials, including Richard Clarke, a former counter-terrorism adviser, and Ivo Daalder, an expert on Europe at the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

“I was impressed,” said Daalder. “He is a smart guy.”

Clinton remains the clear frontrunner. According to the independent pollster Scott Rasmussen, 59% of Americans expect her to be the Democrat nominee for president. (Hahaha! 59% will be WRONG! Susan pipes in.) But the number of Democrats who would “definitely” vote for her has dropped by 11 points in the past two weeks. It did not help that she looked sour when President Bush made a joke about Bill in his State of the Union speech.

The number of Americans outside Virginia who have heard of Warner is so negligible that he does not even feature in national polls. For now that is an asset rather than a handicap. The Democrats who do not know Warner wish they did, while those who know Clinton fear the worst.

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

I even think Dick Morris is backtracking a bit with his prediction because Hillary has done some stuff that's not helped her any. It's also going to be interesting how her election goes in NY. She will of course win, but if the GOP competition has a good show then that will for sure end Hillary's chance for the Dem nomination.

I read recently that McCain seems to be moving ahead among internal polls among the GOP which surprised me.  

Jordan .

As you know, Jordan, I'm taking on all McCain bets as well. NOT gonna happen. Or as the leaving New Jersey sign reads -- Fuggidaboutit!

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

Yeah, I don't have high hopes for McCain for a variety of GOP internal issues.

There's a great chance that both candidates will be former Governors or Mayors.  

Jordan .

Dick Morris writes an interestining editorial here in The Hill :

The ‘Polarization factor’

In handicapping the emerging field of presidential candidates in both parties, it is wise to look at how they play among members of their own political party as compared to voters in the general electorate.

Such a comparison tells us which candidates run the risk of having the syndrome that doomed Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale and John Kerry — being so popular in their own party that they win the nomination but so unpopular among the general electorate that they can’t win the election. It will also indicate who falls victim to the syndrome that bedeviled John McCain in 2000 — being highly electable among the general population but lacking the popularity in his own party to secure the nomination.

Call it the Polarization factor. You derive it by subtracting a candidate’s favorability rating among independent voters from his or her ratings among voters of his own party.

Candidates who are much better-liked by their own party than by independents are highly polarizing. They can win the nomination but face big problems in November. But those who are not much more popular among their own party’s voters than they are among independents would be dynamic candidates in November but have problems winning the nomination. (Of course, a candidate who is loved by both his own party and independents is the ideal candidate, but we are talking about mere mortals here).

The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of Feb. 7-8 gives us the data to examine the possible candidates in light of their tendency to polarize the electorate. The Fox News poll asked respondents to rate the candidates on whether they would “make a good president or not.“ The following table compares the ratings of each candidate among the voters of his or her own party with the ratings among independents to derive the Polarization factor (Pf). Here’s how they stack up.

Hillary Clinton is the most polarizing figure tested. Her sky-high ratings among Democrats (82 percent) suggest that she is irresistible in the primaries and a likely bet to win the nomination. But her lower rating among independents shows that they don’t share the enthusiasm. As he amply illustrated in 2004, Kerry is as polarizing as Hillary, running 32 points better among Democrats than independents.

At the other end of the polarization spectrum is McCain, who draws favorable ratings from 57 percent of independents but only 64 percent from Republicans. These ratings indicate that McCain hasn’t solved the problem that handicapped him in 2000: He can be elected but not nominated.

In the Fox News survey, Rudy Giuliani stands out as the most popular Republican among voters of his own party while also ranking first among independents. The gap between the two ratings — only 18 points — illustrates how Giuliani differs sharply from McCain. He can be both nominated and elected. (Of course, one wonders how the Republican right will receive the news that he is pro-choice, pro-gun control and pro-affirmative action).

While Condoleezza Rice gets lower marks than Giuliani among both Republicans and independents — in part because people do not yet see her as a candidate — she clearly would be a candidate who does not polarize the electorate in the way Hillary and Kerry do.

(Apologies to Frist, Allen, et al., but they were not in the Fox News poll).

All of this underscores the essential point that a party is in real trouble when it is in the grip of a candidate who is certain to be nominated but is hard to elect (Hillary). On the other hand, a party that has a candidate who can win the election but not the nomination (McCain) is squandering a key opportunity.

Polarization factor among possible 2008 candidates

Candidate   Favorability in own party  Favorabilityamong Ind.  Polarization factor
     
Hillary Clinton     82%       48%       34
John Kerry         73%        40%      33
Al Gore              54%        34%      20
Condi Rice         66%        47%      19
Rudy Giuliani      81%        63%      18
John McCain      64%        57%        7

Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.

Morris’s column will revert to its regular Wednesday schedule next week, and David Keene’s column will return.

Jordan .

Oh, that's some list there, Jordan. I find it difficult to believe that Hillary's in the 80s approval among Dems though. Maybe it's the Dems I listen to. Or maybe they like her but don't think she can win so they've already mentally written her off. Whaddever.

This morning I read that the Dems have a secret weapon they intend to pull out to attack Republicans. Frankly I was not too surprised. This "message" generally hovers right up there with "hypocrite" or "closet homosexual."

From this morning's Drudge, which we've probably all seen, but for posterity...

Susan

DEMS UNVEIL '08 MESSAGE: 'YOU'RE FAT!'
Tue Feb 14 2006 08:28:55 ET

**Exclusive**

THE DRUDGE REPORT has obtained an email sent Monday evening by Democratic National Committee (DNC) research director Devorah Adler that contains ten opposition research packets on potential 2008 GOP presidential contenders.

In one packet titled “Newt Gingrich: 08 Watch February 2006” a picture of the former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-GA) appears with --- him holding two full plates of food!

The quote underneath the Gingrich photo reads “In His Own Words: Gingrich’s Solution To Childhood Obesity: ‘Turn off the TV, cut the fatty diet and get exercise.’ [AP, 2/8/06]”

The ten Republicans picked by the Democrat Party include:

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) (Damn fine pick and with 2 first names, probably a comedian too!)

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) (Not likely)

Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) (Used to think likely; now NO WAY)

Former Speaker of the House Gingrich (R-GA) (Love him but ex-wife problems)

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) (Yea, Rudy!)

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) (No way!)

Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) (No thoughts)

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) (No chance in hell)

Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) (Fine with me!)

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) (Good pick, John, but Massachusetts?)

One Republican strategist who had seen the opposition research packets said: 'We should expect nothing less than name-calling and referring to one’s political opponents as ‘fat’ from Howard Dean’s Democrat Party.'

Developing...

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

And another Morris editorial about Al Gore....

Look out, here comes Al

Like a completely refurbished “pre-owned vehicle,” Al Gore seems to be positioning himself to Hillary Clinton’s left and as greener than John Kerry for a run at the 2008 Democratic nomination for president. His slogan might well read “reelect Al Gore.”

The former vice president’s slashing attacks on the administration and his stalwart, if misguided, opposition to the Iraq war leave him without the complications and complexes that will devil Clinton as she seeks to appeal to the unforgiving left of the Democratic Party.

And Gore may be a man whose time has come in his party. It was he who warned of climate change and predicted its consequences. Hurricane Katrina was just a fulfillment of the prophesies Gore wrote about in his late-1980s book Earth in the Balance. He has been an energy-conservation nut for years, and his obsessions with alternatives to oil will play better and better as we come to realize how our addiction to oil has led us to dependency on the dealers of this particular drug — Iran, the Saudi royal family and Hugo Chavez.

The Democratic base’s anger at Gore’s defeat in 2000 was assuaged by the worse Kerry defeat of 2004. The idea that he was an incompetent candidate has been replaced in Democratic iconography by the idea that he was cheated out of the presidency. The hiatus has healed his reputation with the base in much the same way that the negative rap on Nixon for losing in 1960 was ameliorated by the Goldwater wipeout of 1964.

History indicates that candidates who won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College have all come back to win revenge in subsequent elections. Andrew Jackson, cheated in 1824, won in 1828. Grover Cleveland, cheated in 1888, triumphed in 1892. Samuel Tilden, who won the popular vote in 1876, never ran again, but he dealt away the White House in a deal for the withdrawal for federal troops from the South, allowing the Ku Klux Klan to take over. (By the way, for a great history of how this era kindled the racism we have lived with since, read Eric Foner’s new book, Forever Free.)

For those who ponder the disloyalty of Gore’s taking on the wife of the man who plucked him from the ashes of his 1988 defeat to make him vice president, please recall Harry Truman’s line that if you want a friend in Washington, buy a dog. 

Could Al beat Hillary? If Mrs. Clinton persists in her support of the Iraq war, he could. But never count on Hillary losing an election over a principle. It’s a bad bet. If she moves to the left on the war, as she already shows signs of doing, she would preempt Gore and Kerry and use her tremendous lead in fundraising and ex-officio delegates to cruise to the nomination.

Al also has a history of shooting himself as he nears the finish line. In both 1988 and 2000, he repeated the fundamental mistake of not talking about his signature issue: the environment. By backing off global warming and climate change as core issues, he seemed like just another Democrat scaring people about Social Security.

He also lost in 2000 because he vested control over the media in his campaign in his daughter, Karenna Gore Schiff. Supposedly endowed with what the family called “perfect pitch,” she had, instead, a tin ear. According to media consultants who I respect highly, she killed ads that would have worked and insisted on running stuff that accomplished nothing.

Having lost the 1988 election by, according to himself, relying on consultants, Gore blew the 2000 election by listening to his daughter. The next time, hopefully, he’ll listen to himself. His own instincts aren’t half-bad.

But Gore has three things going for him: A perception that he was robbed of the White House and Hillary’s possible stubbornness in continuing to back the war.

The third thing? The weather. As the evidence of global climate change impresses everyone who doesn’t work at the White House, Gore looks more and more like a man whose time may have come.

Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.

Jordan .