From the news wire now:

To: Assignment Desk, Political Reporter, Daybook Editor

Contact: Elliott Jacobson, 202-558-6394 or 202-460-8340 (cell) for Gravel for President 2008

News Advisory:

Former United States senator Mike Gravel (D-Alaska, 1969-1980) will announce his candidacy for the Democratic Nomination for President of the United States.

WHEN: Monday, April 17, 10 a.m. EDT

WHERE: The National Press Club, Zenger Room, 13th Floor, 529 14th St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20045

Paid for by Mike Gravel for President 2008

May I make an educated guess on this one - Mike Gravel won't be the Democratic choice.  

Jordan .

Biden is rumored to be looking at throwing his hat into the race, but it's all up in teh air at this point. Gravel above is the first official one.

Classify me as a Republican adn have a GOP Membership card to prove it, however, I have no problems voting Democrat. I'm more a Conservative than a Republican - and would vote for Lieberman over a liberal Republican (say someone like Specter) any day.  

Yes, I am tiring of the 5 year old tantrums that we've been seeing for about a decade now. This immigration debate the past couple of weeks continues to show that both parties are more interested in November elections than they are actually doing something with the illegal immigration problem which poll after poll shows Americans want something done - seriously done. There is a reason why it's called ILLEGAL immigration. Look at Harry Reid - 10 years ago he was against it, and now he's suddenly for amnesty. Same with Hillary too. And the list goes on and on with both sides.

I have issues with McCain - as do a lot of Conservatives and Republicans. I don't think he'll win the GOP nomination because of these issues.  

With Nov elections coming up, the GOP is very close to losing their majority in Congress. Average Joe GOP voters are tiring of their games, and will be staying home in November just to show how wrong the GOP has been lately.  

Jordan .

Mark Warner's the Democrat's best bet.

John McCain = hahaha. It always perplexes me when left-leaners say how much they like McCain. I think a few concentrated days of actually listening to some of his views might change their minds. But it doesn't matter because McCain is a Senator and a Senator he should stay. For many reasons, he doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of the Republican nomination. EVER. And I voted for him in the Republican primary 2000 so this prediction is not because I dislike him. Let us not forget his driving issue of a few years back -- the cleaning up of television and films. Back then I wrote him a 3 page letter begging him to lay off for the sake of his own personal legacy. He and Lieberman were tenacious on that one. Then there's the other big mistake -- campaign finance reform, well-intended mishmash.

Hillary = hahaha. Still waiting for all the private messages from people wanting to wager money on this one. Hell will freeze over before Hillary gets the 2008 Democratic nomination. But I don't think she's bigoted. In fact, there are few Senators or Congressmen/women I'd characterize that way.

My main man, Roger L Simon, wrote an interesting article this week on his political leanings. He is one of those post-9/11 converts to the "Dark Side" but his politics are a smorgasbord. Here are the issues that he selected to illustrate his own left and right persona. It seems to me that by weighting these issues from most to least important, it can help determine your candidate.  What is he? How should he vote?

These are Roger L. Simon's answers:

Woman's right to choose - favor
Gay marriage - favor (neither presidential candidate did)
Stem cell reserach - favor
Death penalty - oppose (except in rare case of political mass murderers like Hitler, Saddam whose
supporters could release from jail)
National health insurance - basically favor - don't think anyone has come up with good system yet
Global warming - agnostic, don't know enough
Energy - completely favor conservation and alternative source research
General economics and taxation - I'm with Chairman Deng Tsiao Peng on this ("I don't care whether a cat is black or white, only if catches mice."). Show me what works and I'm with you. The ideological arguments are way too 19th Century on this one.
Immigration - I'm with Bush here (in other words more liberal, in the conventional sense, than most Dems and Republicans, ).
War on Terror - as everyone knows, I favor (in part because it seems in harmony with my views above- confusing, huh?)

I'm in agreement with him generally except on Same Sex Marriage and the Death Penalty. Since the Death Penalty is generally a state's issue, unless the Supremes were to go back to the 1970s "Cruel and Unusual Punishment" stance, it's probably weighted a little less when considering the president.  But a candidate who came out strongly in favor of eliminating the Death Penalty is not likely to receive my vote.

Myself, I'm still dreaming of a GIULIANI & Somebody (lots of choices I'd like for VP) versus a MARK WARNER & EVAN BAYH ticket. That would be FABULOUS and I'd be pleased if either side won.

As far as Biden and the Plagarism, I don't know. It seems to me that those sort of issues are not going to be deal-breakers in this next election where I think most Americans are going to be craving some pragmatism on the Big Ticket Items, and will not be (is this too optimistic of me?) dredging up the small stuff.

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

Okay, so this is about 2006 and not 2008 but since I was told I was "angry" today I had a very hearty chuckle when I read this!

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Most Americans are angry about "something" when it comes to how the country is run, and they are more likely than in previous years to vote for a challenger this November, a new poll suggests.

A majority of Americans surveyed -- and a higher percentage than recorded during the same time last year -- said things in the United States are going "badly." Among this year's respondents, 29 percent said "pretty badly" and 25 percent -- up from 15 percent a month ago -- answered "very badly." By comparison, 37 percent described the way things are going as "fairly well," and 9 percent answered "very well."

Of these people, 76 percent said there was "something" to be angry about in the country today. By comparison, 59 percent felt that way when polled in February. (Watch how the midterm elections may hinge on the economy -- 1:56)

Only 21 percent said they were "generally content" in the latest poll.

Nine percent said they considered the economy to be "very good," a number unchanged from a June CNN poll. But the number who considered conditions "somewhat good" dropped from 42 percent to 35 percent over the same period.

The number of respondents who consider the economy "somewhat poor" rose from 31 percent to 34 percent, and the number who called the economy "very poor" jumped from 16 percent to 22 percent.

A majority -- 55 percent -- said they are more likely to back a challenger in races on this year's ballot. Such anti-incumbent sentiment is higher than the 48 percent recorded as "pro-challenger" in a similar survey in 1994, when the GOP took control of both houses of Congress.

Nonetheless, 48 percent said that, if most of the present members of Congress were replaced with new members, there would be no difference. By contrast, 42 percent said such a scenario would change Congress for the better, and 7 percent said it would change Congress for the worse.

The results, based on a half-sample of 1,004 adult Americans polled by Opinion Research Corporation for CNN Wednesday through Saturday have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

More than 60 percent of those surveyed said government policies need either major changes or a complete overhaul, while 30 percent said minor changes were needed. Only 7 percent said no change is necessary.

The economy topped the list of respondents' concerns, with 28 percent calling it the most important issue when deciding how to cast their ballots. Coming second was Iraq at 25 percent, followed by terrorism (18 percent), moral issues (15 percent) and immigration (14 percent). (Watch Bush dispute idea that Iraq is in civil war - 4:09)

Democrats lead Republicans by a 10-point margin, 53 to 43 percent, among likely voters asked which party's congressional candidate they would support in November, and Democrats held a 56-40 lead on the same question among registered voters.

The survey has a sampling error of 3 percentage points among the full group and 4 percentage points among likely voters.

Nearly half of the respondents -- 49 percent -- said they considered the GOP the party of strong leadership. But 56 percent said they considered the Democrats the party of change, with 49 percent considering them the more forward-looking party.

"We cannot allow a mine shaft gap"

Historically, the GOP does worse in these polls and start to improve in October once people start paying more attention to the elections.

Case in point - polls in the Summer showed a 16+ point spread (depending on who you asked) between the two parties on teh election. Now we are seeing closer to 10 point spread.

Furthermore, some of the pollsters (like Rasmussen) having been moving their election forecasts from "Democrat" to "Leans Democrat" as the GOP improves its numbers in the polls. 

These polls about the direction of the country and the anger of people is very misleading. Case in point - I'm not happy with the direction of the country, and I know that change is needed, but the changes I beleive are needed would be different than what Liberal Bob would consider. And yet, we'd both be under the "change is needed" category.  I really hate these vague polls because they are oh so misleading.

Here's a Rasmussen article regarding his polling data. Be sure to look at the history of changes. You'll notice that as the days go by and we get closer, his polling seems to show a move back to the GOP. Example - in Minnesota, the Dem was leading by 12 points, and is now leading by 7 which moves it from "Democrat" category to "Leans Democrat." Right now, according to Rasmussen, the best that the Dems can do is gain 4 seats from the GOP which would tie up the Senate.  The House is more questioanble at this point in the game.

With regards to the Presidential race - two years is a long time. With Bush unable to run again and Cheney not running, this pushes the door open for a lot of variables. Good and bad. It's been a long time since the US has seen an election in which the sitting VP didn't run for President after the terms were up.  

One last thing, the election climate is similar to 1994. But there's a huge difference. The Democrats don't have a solid platform they are running on like the GOP did at the time (Contract with America). Because the Dems are unable to create some sort of solid platform, this is going to ultimately hurt them. If they could run this election off of something other than anger and the "need for change" (saw a bumper sticker yesterday that read "Had Enough? Vote Democratic in 2006"), then I would say we would see a major shift in the govt in two months. But because the Democrats are so unsolidified, the probability of duplicating what the GOP did 12 years ago is unlikely in my opinion.

James Carville said last week that if the Dems can't take over in this election climate then that doesn't say much for the party (paraphrasing badly). I tend to agree.

Jordan .

James Carville said last week that if the Dems can't take over in this election climate then that doesn't say much for the party (paraphrasing badly). I tend to agree

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It would be considered nothing less than a total failure if the Democrats couldn't take control now.  It was a pretty bad failure not to win the last Presidential election, IMO.

Jordan .

Ummm....Jordan?

Hero just quoted you.

Kelly

How Do You Live Your Dash?

Check out the Kids' blogs:
The CaleBlog and the Zoe Blog

Jordan .

Kelly

How Do You Live Your Dash?

Check out the Kids' blogs:
The CaleBlog and the Zoe Blog

Nice to see you posting here superducky.

I also agree that the Dem's should have been able to beat Bush last time and it reflects poorly with where they are at as a party.  No solid hopefuls on the horizon for 2008 that I can see from their side either, they really need to get things in gear or the hole they have been falling into (and helping dig no less) will be too deep to climb out of.  I think every party in power needs an intelligent and credible opposition, here's hoping that can happen in the places in the world where it is not currently.

"We cannot allow a mine shaft gap"

Silly Jorkelites!  The top bit was me quoting Jordan and the bottom bit under the line was my own personal thought!!

Don't know Carville's quote.

LOL!!!!! I thought you quoted Carville above!!!! :) I should've known better since you use "IMO" at the end. In any case, here's Carville's quote :

We have to go back to 1974 (during Watergate) to find such a favorable environment. If we can't win in this environment, we have to question the whole premise of the party.

I don't often agree with Carville's analysis, but I agree here.  Part of me is expecting a large Democratic victory in November (I'll have other things on my mind during that time), but another side of me thinks that the randomness of the Democratic party makes it almost impossible for them to do what the GOP did in 1994.

Jordan .

So, I was right!!!

Go me, go me!!

Kelly

How Do You Live Your Dash?

Check out the Kids' blogs:
The CaleBlog and the Zoe Blog

Doesn't that happen to you all the time, Jordan, where you're confused with James Carville?

I'm constantly mistaken for Hillary Clinton. 

Susan 

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

Well, guys, it's still early but here are some new numbers -- unscientific, but interesting -- from an AOL poll. My main Democratic pick, Mark Warner pulled out of the race earlier this week to my dismay but I find my Republican pick in first place! As for the Democratic first pick, I still am taking all bets that she will NOT be the 2008 Democratic candidate for the presidency of the United States no matter what this poll might indicate. All she truly represents is the slim pickin's in the Dem pool of potential candidates. For crying out loud "Other" is just about as popular! As for Al Gore, even with his big motion picture hit, he is less popular now than the Republican "Other." 

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin