did you mean?

http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm

That other URL doesn't send you to a real website.

Jordan .

Guys(Jordan/Herofix/Susan -you seem to know the score), if i bet £120 on McCain to get the republican nod I stand to win £170 on betfair.com.

Considering

(a) I can afford to lose it

(b) He is the favourite according to betfair

Is that a good bet? please advise

J

Geez, James, I wouldn't want to be a party to your losing any money because the political landscape is fraught with quicksand. It could shift drastically tomorrow. I would never have believed Old John McCain stood another chance at the nom after 2000 but with Guiliani's fizzling in Iowa and New Hampshire, his future is looking grim. Romney seems implausible to me and always has. That could just be wishful thinking on my part as he would never get my vote.  I shouldn't say that.  If pigs fly or Dennis Kucinich is nominated for the Dem slot, I'd vote for Romney.  Sure.  Huckabee is a flash in the pan and yet another future trivia question like Ron Paul. That leaves the default likely winner McCain.

I'd say go for it. Fortune, as they say, favors the bold. Anybody else willing to advise on this bet?

Susan

(still looking for my 2008 signature quote...)

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

If I was running - 'The man, the myth, the maverick'

This weekend, polls started to drift toward McCain and drastically to Obama. I think the odds for McCain getting the nom might actually be increasing soon.

I have to agree with Susan on this. I think in the end, Rudy is out (unless he can pull something out in FL), and it's likely McCain (which really surprises me). The second person would be Romney.

Jordan .

I'll go against the grain and advise against the bet, mate.  Paddypower had Obama at 1/20 ON to win New Hampshire!  So this is volatile.

Consider this weekend with the Newcastle manager's position as a case in point!  When the odds on Redknapp shortened so drastically, it was because when they got to 1/3, big time charlies were putting £30,000 on 'Arry to be the new Toon boss.  I even heard a bookie on SSN referring to it as 'buying money'.  In other words, they'd put the 30k on to 'buy' 10k feeling utterly safe in their stake.  Of course when the money piled on the odds further went out to 1/8!  But it didn't happen like that did it?

Good luck! 

QUOTE: QUOTE:Bill gets called the Big Dog a lot, and Hill-Dog in an extension of that. I'm hung over, so I have no joke to append. Really? Don't think I've ever heard the Big Dog Bill name before... But if you say so...

My impression is that he gets called that by people who like him, and that's a group without much market share in the media right now, so I'm not surprised, but I've definitely seen it around on article comments, message boards, and the like.

Us and the blogosphere both. :)

Meanwhile, here's Kucinich vs MSNBC -- I didn't know they actually changed their rules mid-stream specifically to exclude him. Crazytime.

http://www.alternet.org/columnists/story/74162/

PS - Sorry for Alternet, I'm too lazy to go and look for another source.

PPS - As long as the current Gazette site build has been up, (1) I've had Firefox set up to not allow websites to disable the right-click menu, and (2) I've had the problem of the Firefox menu appearing overtop of and obscuring the built-in posting-window right-click menu. Today, those ENTIRELY UNRELATED bits of information finally merged into a coherent thought, and I changed the setting, and now it's fine! SMRT!

now for something serious - the dinner habits of Obama and Clinton (from the Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Jordan .

Checking out the Dem debate.

Please don't let Hillary get the nomination. she is a cackling holdover from the past. nasty too. Break the bush/clinton continuum. A bush/clinton in the white house (inc. VP )for 28 years now-not another 4 or eight years. That would be most of your lifetimes. That's not good.

But in fact, Republicans (in the media, at any rate) are crazy for Obama. It truly makes me wonder why.

Re: Giuliani, anyone who wants to read a NYT article about what a vindictive mayor he allegedly was can go here. It basically goes on for three pages about how he would use the power at his disposal to attempt to crush anyone who he felt crossed or embarrassed him.

So, Obama over Clinton by more than 2 votes to 1 in South Carolina. Lets made a good point about Clinton being easier to beat, but I would just like to see Clinton out of the mix.

Interesting to note Huckabee's strong second amendment stand-not that it would change existing laws- and his idea concerning a national sales tax verses income tax. One advantage would be to get tax dollars from the underground economy. Obviously the proposal needs to be studied, but it does represent an idea. I'm not a Huckabee guy for other reasons, just noting his campaign.

Obama to me is two clicks to the center from promise the world Hillary. O's one America trumps Edward's two Americas and Hillary's old negative approach. Bill's waging a finger and admonishing the press with " Shame on you ! " is counter productive and ironic.

Here is a portion and link to a column by very liberal Maureen Dowd from S.C.:

"If Bill Clinton has to trash his legacy to protect his legacy, so be it. If he has to put a dagger through the heart of hope to give Hillary hope, so be it.

If he has to preside in this state as the former first black president stopping the would-be first black president, so be it.

The Clintons — or “the 2-headed monster,” as the The New York Post dubbed the tag team that clawed out wins in New Hampshire and Nevada — always go where they need to go, no matter the collateral damage. Even if the damage is to themselves and their party.

Bill’s transition from elder statesman, leader of his party and bipartisan ambassador to ward heeler and hatchet man has been seamless — and seamy.

After Bill’s success trolling the casinos on the Las Vegas Strip, Hillary handed off South Carolina and flew to California and other Super Tuesday states. The Big Dog relished playing the candidate again, wearing a Technicolor orange tie and sweeping across the state with the mute Chelsea.

He tried to convey the impression that they were running against The Man, and with classic Clintonian self-pity, grumbled that Barack Obama had all the advantages.

When he was asked yesterday if he would feel bad standing in the way of the first black president, he said no. “I’m not standing in his way,” he said. “I think Hillary would be a better president” who’s “ready to do the job on the first day.” He added: “No one has a right to be president, including Hillary. Keep in mind, in the last two primaries, we ran as an underdog.” He rewrote the facts, saying that “no one thought she could win” in New Hampshire, even though she originally had had a substantial lead. "....

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/opinion/23dowd.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Republicans in the media?  Who are they?  Did I miss something?  Please enlighten.

Susan 

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

Oh, Susan, so coy. :)

I will say this -- I've come around regarding Edwards.  He's been the closest to bringing up matters of depth and substance lately, and I like a lot of the little I've heard quoted from him in the Mainstream Liberal Media.

"Mainstream Liberal Media"! 

I'm also a big fan of the Loch Ness Monster!  

Well, it's just that the MEDIA is an all-encompassing group and I was curious which Republicans in the media have been supporting Obama.

The Newspaper of Record = the New York Times -- supported Hillary and McCain. There are a few conservative writers there (Safire who writes on language and Brooks who covers politics and Burns who covered Iraq) but I'm not sure they would define themselves as Republicans.

CNN = any Republicans there?

MSNBC = how about there?

I'm watching the George Stephanopolus (former Clinton staffer) Show right now. Donna Brazile (former Clinton staffer) is on the panel.  Cokie Roberts is supposed to be the "moderate" on the show. George Will is the lone Republican there. He's talking about Caroline Kennedy's endorsement of Obama in today's NYT.

Tim Russert, whose "Meet the Press" is on right now also, tries very hard, I think, to be an unbiased journalist but I would very much doubt he's a Republican.

So, let's move over to Fox. I know their crew dislikes Hillary but I just don't recall love of Obama being expressed.

Talk Radio? Rush Limbaugh? Not an Obama-lover. I'm not sure who he likes any more but I know it's not McCain.

So name names, Jamie, and I have an idea what you're talking about. Maybe there's some news source I need to tune in that I'm unaware of so far.

Big Obama win yesterday! Here we go Super Tuesday!!! (I hope I hope I hope)

My guy (Giuliani) is likely out so if the ticket is a Hillary versus Romney, McCain, or Huckabee, I'll go for the Republican with no enthusiasm.

But if the candidate is Obama versus any of the above, the quotient shifts and I could very easily cross party lines for reasons I've stated before.

If there is a Republican (besides Andrew Sullivan) who is in the same camp as I am on this, I'd like to know. Allies are hard to come by in these times.

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

First, most conservatives and Repubs can take the Obama pill easier than another Clinton pill -- so if you do see any Republican-leaning media leaning to Obama, that would be why, i tend to think.

I tend to agree with you, Susan. A vote for a Republican is a no-brainer if Hillary is selected. However, everything changes with Obama. I'll have to wait until the general election to make that determination at this point in the game.

One little note of interest that no one but a few would notice - current MO governor (Blunt) has decided to NOT run for governor after all -- he's only been there 1 term i think. I tend to think that he would win the election again this year. So with him dropping out, I'm beginning to wonder if he's going to run for Congress, OR if he's thinking about a VP slot at this point. the guy is young, smart and has charisma. Him as a VP with any of teh candidates would give them a nice boost, I think.

Jordan .

Super Tuesday right around the corner!

Since I've lost my main man, I might lose interest all together, but NO! There's still Obama. In California, as of Sunday morning's newspapers, Obama and Clinton are statistically tied with Obama a point ahead. 20 points ahead in Georgia. Ahead in New Jersey. Obviously Clinton will have New York.

I hope my local poll-worker (an old friend and neighbor) makes the same error she made in the last presidential primary and hands me a Democrat ballot. Otherwise I have zero zeal to vote for McCain or Romney. McCain already got his primary vote from me in 2000 and I'm just not feeling it in '08.

Everybody registered and ready to go!?

Susan

 This from USA Today:

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

Hillary has had to spend the past few days in California where she had a lock just a couple of months ago. Obama has really eaten up her lead (I tend to think because of Bill's stupidity has of late).

In either case, with Hillary trying to regain CA and Obama increasing his lead in the Midwest and in the South, and eating up her supposed lock in New Jersey, I think this really does suggest that Obama has the wind at her back, and Hillary is in for a really rough Tuesday night. I think Obama will edge out Hillary for delegates on Tuesday. Not sure by how much but he'll take the lead.

Not sure about Romney and McCain. With Huckabee still in the race, he's taking many of the votes that would probably go to Romney so I tend to think that McCain will come out of Tuesday quite nicely.

So yes, I think we're going to see a Obama vs McCain election in November.

Jordan .

Can you believe it? It's Super Tuesday morning in Cal-ee-forn-ee-ah and I do not know for whom I'll cast my vote.

Symbolically for Giuliani?

A sigh of concession and inevitability for McCain?

A fresh reassessment of Romney?

Make it a yuk and vote for Huckabee?

Lose my mind altogether and cast an "F" it vote for nutcase Paul?

Harken back to my apolitical days and abstain from voting for a presidential candidate at all? 

Sigh. (that's not a hint either -- I sincerely do not know)

I'll be meeting a friend for lunch in 2 hours and intend to stop by the elementary school to vote first.

The question I am asking myself is, if it's a fait accompli, do I want to be an accomplice? And I think not.

John and Cindy McCain (what's with her beehive?) called me countless times yesterday. Emailed me today. I'm bugged by their pestering. But what really turned the tide this morning, besides my memory of McCain's previous attack on the movie/tv business with his plans of censorship, was his imploring Romney to apologize to... BOB DOLE! This little nugget of nonsense belongs in the silly season. Romney was asked about the letter of support that had come from Dole re/McCain. Romney said something to the effect of such a letter being the last thing he wanted. McCain distorted that throwaway comment into it being an insult to an American Hero and a Former Republican Candidate for the Presidency and hmpf, how could you be so evil and crass. Why, I never! It was one of the first images to catch my attention this morning on the TV. It was so petty, as I have seen Mr Maverick in the past, that in my sleepy haze I decided then and there, no way, no how. Not getting my vote. And why are Cindy's eyes so piercing?

I'll let you know how it went when I return!

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

"We cannot allow a mine shaft gap"