It's no fun to play it too safe...

Alabama 9 McCain

Alaska 3 McCain
Good thing Palin is there to lock up these 3 big electoral votes.  Too bad the nearby Russians don't get to vote.

Arizona 10 McCain
If Obama loses, it will be because of Arizona.  No, not the Arizona votes, but the time in the last few days Obama wasted here.  Probably the biggest and only serious campaign mistake by the Democrats this year, but no one will remember it if Obama cruises.

Arkansas 6 McCain

California 55 Obama

Colorado 9 Obama
Lucky choice for a convention location for the Democrats this year.

Connecticut 7 Obama

Delaware 3 Obama

Florida 27 McCain

Georgia 15 McCain
Georgia in play?  I don't think so.

Hawaii 4 Obama
Anyone know why this state always comes through for the Democrats?

Idaho 4 McCain

Illinois 21 Obama

Indiana 11 McCain
Indiana and Kentucky polls close early.  If Obama takes either or both, time to check out what's on HBO.

Iowa 7 Obama

Kansas 6 McCain

Kentucky 8 McCain

Louisiana 9 McCain

Maine 4 Obama
But maybe the moose hunting district in Maine goes to the Republicans.

Maryland 10 Obama

Massachusetts 12 Obama

Michigan 17 Obama
Romney on the ticket might have switched this to the GOP.

Minnesota 10 Obama
Pawlenty on the ticket might have switched this, and Iowa and even Wisconsin, red.

Mississippi 6 McCain

Missouri 11 McCain

Montana 3 McCain

Nebraska 5 McCain

Nevada 5 Obama

New Hampshire 4 McCain
OK, so I really had to push the limits here.  Polls show Obama up by about 10 points.

New Jersey 15 Obama

New Mexico 5 McCain
Nevada and New Mexico could be huge.  Call it a split, with the Catholic and next-to-AZ Hispanic vote pushing McCain over in New Mexico.

New York 31 Obama

North Carolina 15 McCain
Surprising that this is so close.

North Dakota 3 McCain

Ohio 20 McCain
Ohio and Pennsylvania could go either way.  Or both ways.

Oklahoma 7 McCain

Oregon 7 Obama

Pennsylvania 21 Obama
If the Ohio/PA split does go the other way, Pennsylvania's one extra electoral vote could be the difference.

Rhode Island 4 Obama

South Carolina 8 McCain

South Dakota 3 McCain

Tennessee 11 McCain

Texas 34 McCain

Utah 5 McCain

Virginia 13 McCain

Vermont 3 Obama

Washington 11 Obama
Who would Norma Jennings vote for?

West Virginia 5 McCain

Wisconsin 10 Obama

Wyoming 3 McCain

District of Columbia 3 Obama

National Popular Vote - Obama/Biden 50 percent, McCain/Palin 48 percent

Electoral College Votes - Obama/Biden 269, McCain/Palin 269

Haha, B, those are some bold predictions especially the bottom 269-269 electoral votes.  I don't think so.  I smell landslide.

California propositions.  Lord how I hate them! 

I'm surprised by those of you who think NO on 8 is a "no brainer."  My brain has it otherwise and I'll be voting YES.

YES on Proposition 8 for me, though it sure looks like it's gonna lose. Sorry it had to come to this.  I dislike changing the constitution.  Even if it's just a state constitution.  And even if that state constitution only decided a few short months ago that marriage need not remain the one-man + one-woman construct that it had been forever.  They interpreted California constitutional rights to include marriage between two members of the same sex. Overnight the traditional definition -- indeed the dictionary meaning of marriage as a union between a man and a woman -- was a denial of basic California constitutional law.  A few judges said so and suddenly it was so.  In May.  Six months ago. 

Myself, I'm sorry that the meaning of marriage in our society will be altered.  I don't see it ending here either and we may expect the fundamentalist Mormons to push for inclusion of multiple wives again as that "right" was once denied to them.  The federal government said NO to the state of Utah if they continued to allow one man + many wives = marriage.  Nope.  Even if they were all loving, committed, willing adults of sound mind. 

Bi-sexual trios?  Should they be forbidden to right to marry one of each gender?  How can the state forbid lawful wedlock to such trios? 

There are still states that forbid first cousin marriages mostly for reasons of the potential genetic reprecussions for offspring but what if they're sterile?  How about siblings in love?  Brothers and brothers?  Fathers and daughters?  Okay.  Too whacked for you?  Give it a few generations.  Let's lower the bar a little.  First cousins who are sterile? 

Do not expect that there will not be further pushes to make marriage more inclusive as the years go by.  And do not expect traditional marriage to have much meaning societally when this happens.  Heck, we might expect the same sex happily married couples of 2020 to react negatively to the idea of some of these other denials of basic human rights. 

So I wonder, where it goes from here?  Wonder why it's brainless to contemplate the potential long range ramifications on so many other levels from children and the impending societal shifts.   I do think of it from two main vantage points -- how it impacts children and how it impacts the basic building block of society -- the family. 

F'rinstance, there are stages in childhood development, especially with girls, where sexuality is not fixed.  Wonder how the concept of either gender being an equal choice when speculating about a future spouse might be an additional confusing factor when going through adolescence.  Bear in mind that none of us were raised with the societal notion that when you grow up and get married, either a boy or a girl will be just fine.  Once that idea takes root in society -- a couple or three generations hence -- only then will the ramifications be realized.

Wonder if the differences in male/male unions, which do not tend to be long-term or monogamous, might impact the idea of family building.  I'm thinking children once again.  I would imagine a scant percentage of male homosexual couples would even want to get hitched unless they're considering long-term relationships which might logically include the house, the dog and cat and a kid or two.  Do two men (or two women) as parents have the same to offer as parents or is it BETTER to have a mother and a father?  All things being equal, that is. 

Wonder what happens when all "marriages" would have to be considered as equal when considering where to place a child for adaption.  I'm so retro, I don't even like the idea of single parents adapting children if there are married couples available for those children, but that's just me.  Old.  Old-fashioned too.

Wonder about the fact that two males alone or two females alone cannot procreate so automatically a third party is involved in each potential family if children are desired.  Wonder about the complex family law situations that will develop.

Wonder how this will impact society at large because I think it will present a far more complex set of problems than many imagine when just thinking blithely that it is mean and unfair to deny same sex marriage.  This is rapid-fire social engineering on an epic scale.  Most of all,  I do not want to fundamentally shift the structure of our society and I believe it is unreasonable to assume that nothing will happen as a result of such a shift.  By the time we can properly assess those changes -- by the time society has eschewed the concept of family as the building blocks of communities and that the best possible situation for a family is 1 mother + 1 father and however many children -- it will be too late to put the genie back in the social engineering bottle.

As I say, I am mostly concerned with what it means for children in the same way I am concerned for the already shakey family structure in many European nations where marriage is not considered a prerequisite for having children.  Everything that breaks down the family structure in its own little way breaks down the functionality of society.  A little bit doesn't matter too much.  Too much matters alot and then we are asea without a structure, even when that structure has its share of broken families. 

I have not even addressed how this will impact religious establishments.  Like it or not, they are tax exempt organizations.  Should they follow the tenets of their religious teachings by not marrying same sex partners, they may find themselves in a legal entanglement over denying constitutional rights.  

It probably already is too late.  But for this proposition, I will cast my ballot to reaffirm the definition of marriage as it was in California prior to May 2008.  Back in those hate filled days earlier this year!  

I will vote as I did only a few years ago along with 66% of my fellow citizens who also voted that California would recognize marriage as only being between ONE MAN and ONE WOMAN.

Suddenly those 66% are hateful.  Suddenly they are the moral equivalent of Simon Legree.  Bad, mean, and racist probably too. 

Tomorrow, a large percentage of those same 66% will vote NO on 8.  Funny, cuz I am quite certain if it were on this ballot, they would vote YES again on that same "one-man + one woman = marriage" proposition thereby contradicting themselves.  World turned upside down.

Good advertising on the part of the NO on 8 team.  Lousy on the part of the YES team.  8 will probably go down in defeat.  I will be sorry to see it happen but not flabbergasted. 

Pandora's Boxily Yours,

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

TL, DR.

To be frank, I think Prop 8 will pass. I don't think we've made enough of a difference in our campaigning to see too much of a change from the numbers for Prop 22. However, we've put up a good fight and we will continue to fight because when it comes down to it, regardless of dictionaries and churches, equal rights  belong to everyone.

We can play the "What if" game all we want. I'm sure it was played prior to women being given the right to vote. What if women are allowed to vote? They might start thinking for themselves and having opinions and egads, they might wear pants too! Big change is scary, and we can speculate all we want. At the end of the day, it's not up to me or my religion-based definition of marriage to really stand in the way of two consenting, loving adults from having their legally-recognized day at the altar of their choosing. Personally, I think the word "marriage" needs to be removed from the equation since that's where people like to hang it up. Let's call it a "union" and be done with it. Let's stop being afraid of what change might bring.

~ Amanda

"Just fear me, love me, do as I say and I will be your slave..."

I will agree with this.  The Yes on 8 certainly got the fundraising part right though.  I saw on another forum that LDS bought 1 MILLION yard signs, and I've seen Yes on 8 ads on pretty much every website I've visited today.

 It is entirely possible 8 will pass anyway, but gosh I hope not.

Thanks for the added note, Amanda!

I don't think comparing same sex marriage "rights" to the woman's suffrage movement works, Amanda.  There already was an equal right to marriage and no right was being denied.  This is not mere semantics. Any man of a given age had the right to MARRY any woman of age. And any woman of age had the right to MARRY any man.  Equal. Well, except you couldn't marry a sibling in California though the state did and does allow first cousin marriage.   

For me this has nothing to do with religion except for the fact that the country was founded on a Judeo-Christian basis of standards.  There are ancient pagan based models where heterosexual monogamy was NOT the norm and I just see more value to our more recent model. 

I do think it's useful to go to the 'what-ifs' as you call them.  In order to make up one's mind on something as drastic as altering the definition of marriage, I think it's important to play out some of the multiple implications of this societal change before plunging in.  The legal changes to come to not end at the altar. 

What you call 'fear' I view as thoughtful caution over some of the many scenarios I've posed.  See, I think the system has worked out pretty well for Western civilization.  I think the traditional family has a lot to do with why our societies have succeeded. 

Well, anyway, I pretty much laid the basics of my pro-traditional marriage rationale in that lengthy post.  I won't beat a dead horse.  Let's check back in after 40 or 50 years and see how it all works out.  I predict a sea change.  Of course I'll be long gone, but still...

You know I love you just the same, Amanda, but I guess we'll just disagree on this one.  I only wanted to say that I do not think the proposition was so obvious as you and others may think.  But I do not think the YES side has had very good persuasive arguments in their ads and some of them had me wincing with embarrassment.

Susan

PS  What does TL, DR mean? Too long, Dark Reel?  Too late, Dead Rats?  Try later, Deep River?

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

That's hilarious, B!  Who knew?  Perhaps what's expressed in that article is the greater issue of ramifications and visions of things to come.  Human interaction is going through serious change these days.

Amanda, here in my neighborhood I haven't seen or heard much campaigning.  The few yard signs and bumper stickers I've seen have been almost exclusively Obama/Biden.  Close to home, my neighbor across the street -- he's an agent for comedians/she's a mother of 5 -- have had McCain/Palin signs up but they were torn down and mutilated last weekend.  Two new signs are up and woven in between the bars of their fencing. On the other side of us live the retired judge and retired professor lesbian couple.  A few days ago they put up their "No on 8" sign.  The retired school board official down the street almost always has a few Dem. yard signs but nothing this year.  He may be out of town.  That's it for the entire block.  No one has come to my door and the worst part for me has been hanging up on every single political phone call as they come in.  Is there anything worse than a ringing telephone?  ; )

I'll vote around 2:00 or 3:00 today. 

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

Yep! The phone stops ringing tonight...finally...

Wanted to vote this morning, BUT the parking lot was full at the polling place (a church - GASP!) and I wasn't in the mood to stand in line forever. So I headed to work. Kelly went not too long ago and there was no line so hopefully I'll be able to vote this afternoon. Not that it matters in KS....

Jordan .

Yep, I did my civic duty today. Caleb did too. He got a sticker and a cookie to prove it!! :lol:

I caught a peek at someone's ballot and they were voting Obama, but it's no surprise since we are in Kansas City. KC and St. Louis is VERY liberal. Everything else outside of those two cities is completely conservative. :D

Kelly

How Do You Live Your Dash?

Check out the Kids' blogs:
The CaleBlog and the Zoe Blog

Had a very easy time voting today- CA allows permanent vote-by-mail, which I am,  but I never remember to mail it in time. I catch my train right next to the county clerks office, which as far as I know is not an actual polling place but is where all the ballots end up.  There were many volunteers, no line.  The only real weirdness was I had to explain why I had 4 ballots in my hands.  The county forgot to add one  local position to my original ballot (County water supervisor or something similar), so sent another one (x2 for my girlfriends ballots)... 

"Harry, I'm going to let you in on a little secret. Every day, once a day, give yourself a present. Don't plan it, don't wait for it, just let it happen. Could be a new shirt at the men's store, a catnap in your office chair, or two cups of good, hot, black coffee. Like this."  -Dale Cooper

Jordan .

"Harry, I'm going to let you in on a little secret. Every day, once a day, give yourself a present. Don't plan it, don't wait for it, just let it happen. Could be a new shirt at the men's store, a catnap in your office chair, or two cups of good, hot, black coffee. Like this."  -Dale Cooper

~ Amanda

"Just fear me, love me, do as I say and I will be your slave..."

Sitting up late watching this all unfold on the BBC. Think we can *safely* say Barack Obama will be the next President of the USA. Good times. 

Although I'm hesitant to go to bed since 4 years ago I went to bed thinking Kerry had won the election in 2004 only to wake up and find out that the world had to put up with another 4 years of nastiness and bumbling incompetence. Gonna see this one through :)

John Bolton is currently on my tv screen looking red in the face and getting very annoyed at the other pundits' critique of the Republican campaign. Suck it up you thoroughly dislikable bastard !

Aw, come on.  Be nice in your vicarious victory,  Sweetie!  Remember how gracious we winners were back in 2004?  We were. 

I voted around 12:30 today.  Maybe 4 or 5 people in line in front of me.  No sweat.  I went through all the smaller offices, the judges, the state measures and then back to Page One.  Who to choose.  I pondered it all last night, all morning and on the way to the polling place but still needed a few more minutes to decide.  Republican, Democrat or don't vote in that race.  Ultimately I decided by considering which candidate I'd be less disappointed to see on the front page of tomorrow's papers as the winner.  If things go as it looks like they'll go, I will have voted for a winner in every election since 1988. I may live to regret it but it was already a done deal in my state anyhoo. 

I'm hoping for the best for the country.

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

No he's just an angry nasty man. I'm not just saying he's dislikeable simply because I'm anti-GOP.  Personally, I think GB has alot of good qualities including a common touch and a GSOH. Governance is a different story however!

Bolton just needs to accept defeat gracefully and fade back into obscurity.

Well done USA. 

well, it was pretty much over an hour ago, but FNC just gave Virginia to Obama which gives him 220. CA's 55 points gives Obama more than 270. Not too surprised.

Looks like my prediction was wrong though - Obama victory will be bigger than I thought it was going to be.

But I don't think the Dems are going to get 60 seats in the senate so the GOP luck out there a bit. Still going to be rough on the GOP for the next 2 years. They deserve it after doing such a sucky job the past four years.

If Dems want to start a new era, they have a great opportunity now. it'll be an interesting next couple of elections until the next midyear election in 2.

Jordan .

And it also looks like Virginia chose my earlier Democratic presidential pick, former Governor Mark Warner, as Senator.

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

~ Amanda

"Just fear me, love me, do as I say and I will be your slave..."

Keep your eye on the doughnut, not on the hole -- DL

Wish I was with you, Amanda!  We could sip a glass of vino and discuss Greek culture for I am a Grecophile, you know.  Classical Greek mostly. 

It is exciting!

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin