He won't hit the number on pledged delegates alone, no. Superdelegates count for 20% of all delegates, and no candidate can hit the number of 2,024 on pledged delegates alone (least of all Clinton).

There will be 4,047 delegates seated (as it stands now).  All anyone needs is a simple majority of +1 to win the nomination.  So if Clinton is behind at all, then in order to win she needs to take the majority of undecided superdelegates despite having lost the voting cycle.  Do you see why I find this unlikely? 

So if we assume that a strong majority of superdelegates who remain neutral until the last contest will then choose the candidate who came second in the voting contest, then yes Clinton could just barely win. I think Nancy Pelosi, Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson and Howard Dean would have something to say about that. But we can imagine that scenario if we want to. And as I wrote above, it is not a pretty scenario for the Democratic Party at all. They might do that........but it would be unspeakably stupid for the reasons I pointed out. And other reasons I haven't mentioned.

We seem to be living more and more in a blind-leading-the-blind world where no one knows what's REALLY going on -- not those who are doing the goings-on nor those who analyze the proceedings.  But this article from Politico.com claims there is NO WAY Clinton can win the nomination.  If that's the case, and it's so obvious, I wonder why everyone doesn't recognize the truth of it.

As we stumble forward, it will become more and more interesting.

Susan 

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

clinton all the way baby... lmao even funnier if these two get a tie...

if those counts in FL and MI are counted then she wins. what are you reading ?

if there is a re-do then she'll still win. that is why the "obama camp" doesn't want those two states counted. simple math uh, yeah. obama loses. :) besides it ain't over and i don't believe the obama media spin. wasting too much campaign money on it and what a shame. i'm confident in hillary's platform and leadership that i think she'll pull it out if people can get beyond his tony robbins-esque like speeches.

there isn't going to be a do-over in MI or FL for 1 reason - it costs too much! In fact, it's not even fair for a do-over! Both states went ahead with their elections knowing full well that their votes won't count. This is the fault of the Democratic party of those states. Everyone knew the rules going in, and now that those delegates are so important, people want to change the rules.

The MI vote for sure is unfair since only Hillary on that ballotso we can't take that one into account. The FL vote has Hillary with a slight majority but still not enough to overtake Obama. Take a look at this page and then checkbox both MI and FL and give her a 60-40 victory (unlikely):

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

Obama will win Montana, Oregon and South Dakota by a minimum of 5 or 6pts. I have Hillary a 60-40 victory on all remaining primaries and gave Obama a 52-48  victory in the three states above and Oabam still leads by 1. It is almost mathematically impossible for Hillary to win even with FL and MI.

And if we do have a delegate tie at the start of the convention, the superdelegates will probably go with whomever had the most votes nationally which I think at this point even fi you had FL and MI, Obama has just a slight lead. PA will change that because Hillary will probably win by a minium of 10 pts.

Jordan .

B - McCain is averaging out a lead against both Obama and Clinton according to Real Clear Politics.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Jordan .

QUOTE:What - my own personal word is not good enough for you?

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

Coming down to 'electability' again, though, it's a crapshoot what will happen in Middle America. The Right and Left Coasts are the boisterous, noisy early parts of the political process here, but the midsection of the country bakes slowly, and there's no telling yet what their real temperature is. Primaries are partisan by nature.

My gut feeling at this point is a McCain win over either of the history-making Dems. McCain is seen as a 'liberal' Republican (which he is - look at his campaign reform and immigration stands), and can probably pull some mid-Democratic votership like Reagan did in 1980.

Coming into this year I would have thought the Presidential election was a lock for a Democrat, but I understand why Mr. Neff can see a McCain win. The Democratic primary has been fractious enough already to make some Obama partisans or Clinton partisans either stay home or even vote for McCain, who despite his hawkish nature has a certain 'feel' to him which may make him an acceptable alternative to some Democrats or left-leaning independents who got scorned on the primaries.  This is pure speculation, and wildly unfounded as well, but if you study someone like Jon Stewart carefully, you can convince yourself that he'd pull the lever for McCain before Clinton.  A lot of me speculating thusly probably has to do with the fact that they're TV buddies.....so maybe take that with a pinch of salt.  

Yes, I've seen the 'netroots' doing their best to tie him to the Bush administration and also to the familiar hated evangelical right...I'm not sure that that's going to work because I don't think the netroots (kos et. al) reaches the type of person they'd need to reach.

About the only thing I think I 'know' right now in this confusing election year is that Senator Clinton will win Pennsylvania by somewhere between 10 and 20 percentage points.

QUOTE: QUOTE:What - my own personal word is not good enough for you? Yes, of course it is, Andrew.  Belladawna, you'd be well-advised to follow Herofix's suggestions on reading material.  A Hillary nom is a virtual impossibility at this late date.  Don't force me into an "I told you so" position somewhere down the line.  I'm so not a gloater and don't want to be transformed into one.

actually, no i don't need "follow herofix's reading suggestions" but thanks for the well misinformed reply.

i'm well aware of what i am reading. it's the same crap  and spin all of you are!! lmao i know for a fact that the MI and FL votes went to hillary(as all the facts show). so therein lies the problem. there is still a chance that there might be a re-do. i've read the latest news that there might not be one but it's not even close to over yet and hillary isn't the type of lady to get strong armed into quitting when she knows she still can win the nomination is all i'm trying to say. :) *edited to add this: some of y'all might find the words in this text funny to what i've previously said on "math".... what are you reading?!?! http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/13/mann.democrats.maths/index.html  http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/24/us/politics/24campaign.html?ref=politics *

it's not about i told you so or etc. ad nauseum... lol i like obama just fine but still hoping hillary can win due to her being the better candidate and it's not over yet is all.... i'm not interested in slinging mud about over this.... although, regarding the cherry picking comment, i do share a similar uh, cherry tying talent as a certain character, so  cherry picking sounds like fun... ;) 

besides i believe that hillary can win regardless of what the current count is. i mean she's going to nail PA and then obama's people can worry. she should stay in and keep on keepin' on.  oh and gloat away doesn't bother me in the least as i've mentioned i like obama, just hillary mo' bett-ah :) so i win either way honestly... lmao i just will freak out if mccain becomes the next president because he truly scares me.

but thank you for the interesting url's tho. were a good read :)

True story:

I was going to ask Booth to post that video, seeing as I'm too stupid to figure out how to post links on TPG right now, not to mention give the link a nice and tidy appearance. Then I thought, 'Chances are if I wait a while he might put it up anyway'.

My faith in Booth rewarded as always.

there's a couple of things that we must keep in mind when trying to wade through this mess - it's the Democratic voter blocs. We have 3 main types (yes, there are more): African-American, the far left, and Blue-Dog Dems.

If Hillary wins the nom, I believe that the African American vote will stay home in November. This bloc has consistently gone to Obama and will view a Clinton victory as being stolen from Obama unless Bill Clinton can put on his charm and bring them back into the fold, that is. I find this to be doubtful and this may be the biggest problem for the Democrats that could have repurcusions for years.

If Hillary wins the nom, I believe that the far left who mostly support Obama due to his stance on the war will either stay home or vote for someone other than Hillary (Nader?). Again, we'll hear cries of it being stolen, etc.

Blue-Dog dems will for the most part vote for McCain. Obama is too liberal for most of them, and Hillary is well, Hillary.

In all cases, Obama will be able to take a victory without many cries of stolen nomination because the concept of him having the nomination is already in place in most people's minds. Whether it's true or not, doesn't matter - it's all about the way it looks and feels.

And then there's little poll that came out last week - A recent Pennsylvania poll shows that 1 in 5 Democrats will vote for McCain in November if their Democratic candidate loses in August. That's 20% of the Democratic voting bloc. This statistic does not bode well for a Democratic victory in Nov. Granted, we are talking about a single state, but if this poll has any sort of reality to it, this could be a huge problem for Dems.

So unless either Obama or Clinton drop out before November (or if the other chooses the other for VP), if this fight goes all the way to the convention, we will probably see a huge implosion in the party setting of a potentially easy victory for McCain.

There's still a lot of time between now and then but if the Dems keep fighting this out, some major voting blocs are going to get hurt and insulted and you can say bye-bye to a Democratic victory in Nov (even with many conservbatives staying home refusing to vote for McCain). It's been a while since we've seen 3 straight terms from one political party in the US but as long as this Dem fight continues, I think it's very likely.

Jordan .

Hero - I'm surprised you have such a nice account regarding the pulse in the US right now. It's like you're right here smack in the middle of the US!! :)

BTW - it's been really nice to see a thread in a political forum that is actually at a high degree of intelligence and analysis. For so long, it was banter and divisive. The feeling has dramatically changed.

Jordan .

I've become addicted to this race, Jordan.  I'm forcing myself to look at sources that have information I don't necessarily want to see, even.

Hopefully I won't end up with egg on my face!  Basically, all I do is check Drudge, CNN, MSNBC, DailyKos, MyDD, DemConWatch, Hillary is 44, Politico, NYTimes, WaPo, Slate and Barack's campaign website regularly! :) 

you need to add RealClearPolitics.com to that list. Not only does it do the polls but it gives you the latest interesting editorials from the big papers and mags.

That explains how well you know the pulse. Must be fun reading over at Daily Kos! :)

Jordan .

After watching that Raining McCain video and thinking back to Obama Girl, I'm going back even further to the dueling "Black Boys/White Boys" from Hair.
  (I preferred the Broadway musical version but this is all that remains on YouTube.)

Belladawna sez:

lmao i know for a fact that the MI and FL votes went to hillary(as all the facts show).

But you do realize that Hillary was the ONLY democratic candidate on the Michigan ballot, right? How meaningful do you think that "win" really was?

As for your NYT article, so what if Evan Bayh is throwing the Electoral College into some imaginary new quotient?!

Clinton Backer Points to Electoral College Votes as New Measure

By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE

Published: March 24, 2008

Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, who backs Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton for president, proposed another gauge Sunday by which superdelegates might judge whether to support Mrs. Clinton or Senator Barack Obama.

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

I've seen you mention RCP more than once, Jordan, so I'll take your advice and hit it daily.

Reading Daily Kos actually *can* be fun - depending on your mood.  Due to Barack vs. Hillary, the overbearing weariness of the 'Why I hate Bush so much I am suffering gastric problems' diaries are not so much in force.

You haven't seen fun though until you spend some quality time at Hillary is 44.