My favourite reasons for opposing a Democrat in the White House are always along the lines of 'something bad could happen.'  It's so nuts, I just have to laugh.

I have to say, I was really proud of and moved by McCain's speech last night. I've always liked him as the Republican candidate because I think he was the best person to represent the Republican party - and I mean that sincerely. I'm just sorry that some members of the Republican party can't seem to also represent well. Have some pride, people.

~ Amanda

"Just fear me, love me, do as I say and I will be your slave..."

yes, McCain gave a wonderful speech last night. The boo-ers seem to be a small number of folks, but I wish they hadn't done it. I don't mind partisanship, but the last 8-12 years, the partisanship has been overboard to the point of being nauseating.  

Eight years ago, the left never accepted Bush's presidency because "he stole it." Four years ago, they still didn't accept the victory because too much had already happened by then.

The last thing this country needs is for the right to do what the left did eight years ago (minus the whole stealing the election stuff). The whole question of which Obama will be leading the US for the next four years is still in question - is it the far-left idealogue with a left voting record, or will it be the govern to the center politician Obama which has been the one who has campaigned over the past few months. The right need to sit tight and see which Obama will emerge.

the fact of the matter is that with the economy as it is now, Obama is going to have his hands tied and he's not going to be able to push too many far left pieces of agenda out. With the Dems not able to take 60 seats in the Senate it does keep Obama from pushing too far.

Now there is something that needs to be considered and it was something that Carl Cameron said last night that got me thinking asout this. Supposedly in the last few days, there was a quiet rumor amongst the inner McCain folks that he had come to the understanding that something was bigger at work, and with Obama being the first African-American who could win the presidency, that it might be better that he won for us as a country. Whether this really is the case doesn't matter but it did get me thinking about the next few years and what an Obama presidency will look like and what his legacy might be.

(President) Obama is not like any other president before him - he's African-American. His name doesn't even sound like a US president. Like any president, legacy is important to them, and with Obama being the FIRST black president, the legacy is even more important. He's already made history and he will always have that. But if he has a lackluster presidency full of quagmire and partisanship, his legacy will not be very good and will simply stop at being the first black president.

So President Obama has already two things that will keep him moderate - the economy (even in the dark smoke filled rooms of Democrats - they know raising taxes is a bad idea) and his own legacy as the first African-American president. I know most don't care about their legacy until later (and that might be the case here), but if Obama wants to be a great president and have a great legacy, he has a number of things he MUST do which may not always be popular with the left and right:

1. Fix the economy - we are a capaitalistic country - it will sooner or later fix itself but Obama will get the credit (which makes it harder for the GOP to run against him in 4 years if the economy corrects itself by then). Govt can do things to improve or hurt the economy, but it sounds like Obama is surrounding himself with good capitalist economists so that's good.
2. Bring an end to Iraq - already in the works, Obama just has to continue down the road that Bush has paved for him at this point. Obama will get most of the credit that really belongs to Bush (both the bad and good credit). With that said, if Obama missteps here, he could find himself in his own Iraqi quagmire which could hinder his presidency the entire time - thus I think he will stay on the same path as Bush. He needs to not pull out to soon, otherwise he will find himself stuck in Iraq for awhile.
3. Fix the partisanship - of the items here, this is probably the hardest, but if he can do it, he will go down as a great president.
4. Govt's budget - this is going to be very tough because it involves both 1 and 3 above. Everyone agrees that we spend too much and that we need a balance budget. The problem is that Obama's plans still increase spending so it's not great. Mix that in with Reid and Pelosi's own desires and Obama will probably need to put a stop on some of their own agendas. He needs to take control of the govt as a whole and be the leader rather than letting Congress take control - I think we are going to see some internal Democratic strife next year as the Executive and Legislative branches fight it out in backrooms.

I know health care is important for many people, but he needs to avoid that pitfall for now until at least year 3. As we saw in the early 90s, health care reform can derail the administration. He needs to avoid the fairness doctorine for now because that is immediately paristanship.

One of the questions asked over the past few months is what kind of change does Obama represent? Is he change that will produce more partisanship, or is it change that will produce less partisanship?

If he can achieve less partisanship and still get something done - he will have a great legacy, but he if allows the Democrats to push through far-reaching leftist agenda, then it will only increase partisanship, and we'll back to square one - no change.

Not that anyone asked for my two cents....

Jordan .

~ Amanda

"Just fear me, love me, do as I say and I will be your slave..."

"It's not so bad as long as you can keep the fear from your mind." - D. Cooper

"I must not fear. Fear is the mind killer." - P. Atreides

"Whoever can see through all fear will always be safe" - L. tzu

what was that abbreviation? TL;dr?  My thoughts on Obama's term

Legacy: I hope I'm around long enough to see Obama on some money!

I think Obama will have a few easy early victories- passing SCHIP, temporary freezing foreclosures for a while, maybe something diplomatic with Pakistan and an appearance of shift of effort to actually stopping terrorism.  Stem Cell Research will piss of some right-wingers but will look like progress to most people.  Possibly something with energy policy that is likely to piss of environmentalists.  Also eagerly awaiting the ejection of the Bush/Cheney political appointees in places like EPA, FDA, USGS.  This is where a lot of the real damage in the last 8 years has been done- the cronies that basically ignored/edited/re-spun the work of the career professionals.

I may be crazy, but I actually don't think Iraq will be much of an issue.  It has become safer for our troops there, and if the strain on reservists drops I think most people will be ok with some continued presence.  I'd be very surprised if there was a complete withdrawl even by the end of a 2nd Obama term, but I think it would be likely that an Obama administration could go below pre-surge levels.  (Probably a McCain adminstration could have done the same thing). The policy to pay-off some of the Iraqi factions is working.  Obama is  hanging his reputation on breaking up Al Quada.  Dramatically increasing troops in Pak and Afghanistan will look good, as will re-invigorating NATO/UN involvement, but things could go south on him if there are not dramatic gains and/or if troop losses/civilian losses don't drop as a result.

   Otherwise, it will be really interesting to see what a congressional agenda looks like vs. Obamas agenda.  Most of these guys are really NOT  that "left wing" (sure, unless you watch Fox).  I'd guess if it is a choice of Jobs vs. Debt, Obama will go Jobs.  This may get under the skin of people that want a true spending freeze, but I think more stimulus packages/public works/education have a chance of making it through the congress even if it results in increased spending.  True UHC is out of reach now (too bad!)   Part of me thinks we should just get it over with while everything else is in the crapper rather than going through a separate re-adjustment period, but I don't see this happening, and even if we get through the current crisis this is something that has very little chance of passing in this country. 

   I think it will be more or less business as usual.  I actually look forward to a GOP that focuses on fiscal conservatism and acutal family values rather than fear and a divisive social agenda.  The dems are likely to tell the GOP to f--- off (just as much as the GOP did 2000-2006/8), but there is some sense that people are actually paying attention, and I think if the GOP can put forward real creative solutions without screaming about socialism/he's a muslim terrorist, they may have some popular support and force the Dems hand.  This already happened with offshore drilling (unfortunately). 

Supreme court will be really interesting, obviously- won't really alter the court since I'd guess the next people to die/retire will be more on the left.   I'm sure Obama won't pull a Harriet Meyers.   He's not going to go for a strict constructionist obviously, and I'm not really sure how far left judges really go, but I'd be kind of surprised if he went way left.

Libertarians are the biggest third party, true or false ? After Const. and Green, but they could become the number three.

Many registered Libertarians and probaly those with some knowledge of the Tarians vote for someone else-often a Rep but not always. The wasted vote logic kicks in.

So, you start gaining entropy now as a party. The dockworker in Maine who is prevented or punished for trade with Columbia. The latter day Blue Dog Dems, moderate and constitutional Reps, get to gen y, etc.

libertarians and their ideas would at least become a group to be ah consulted with, with some respect. and influence.

Probaby should start a new thread now...but...who cares....

Looks like Obama is selecting Rahm Emanual as Chief of Staff. You might remember him from Clinton's era. He's supposed to be a really smart, politically-savy guy, but he's very tough partisan with close ties to Pelosi. He's far from a "bi-partisan" type fellow. He was one of the masterminds who helped the Dems take seats from GOP in 2006. Even Juan Williams on Fox News (he's a Democrat) had a hard time putting a positive spin on it. He said that this was a way for Obama to keep close eye on Pelosi and then admitted that this was the rosiest of pictures for choosing Emanual.

Here's an article from the Washington Post in 1998. According to it, he helped shape Clinton's centrist image so it does suggest that this is the way Obama is moving - staying center. So I'd say that is good but then since he is such a partisan, that's not so good.

BTW - Houston Chronicle has an article about the best polls this year. Note the first one. :-) My favorite pollster.

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

The worst?

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Jordan .

Given that one of Pelosi's first high-profile actions in her position was to say that impeachment for GWB was "off the table", I'd say the more overseers are assigned to her work, the better.  Especially given how tight and disciplined the Obamadministration (my new word, Copyright 2008 Jamison V S Cant) is going to have to be to get through the first term undamaged.

(Sidebar: With the unreasonably high expectations upon him -- no, not fueled by him, as anyone who has listened to one of his speeches can attest to -- it's going to be tough to weather the upcoming four years, even if everyone stays on his side.  There's a long list of issues that are part of his mandate, most of which will get worse before they get better.  And that's not counting the eventual emergence of whatever Starr Commission 2.0 the Republicans assemble for a stage show while they rebuild the party.)

Kelly

How Do You Live Your Dash?

Check out the Kids' blogs:
The CaleBlog and the Zoe Blog