Susan - Re: Drudge

Gee, do you think so?  

Well Jordan, looks like it was bang in the middle of our two predictions.  We could set up a new punditry business, taking the average of our predictions - we'll be rich, filthy rich I tell thee!  It's 8:00 in the morning here, and I just woke up to these results cold, so I'm having a hard time getting a grasp on what the delegate count might be.  Circa 12 to Clinton??

WOW, I was close. Off by .6 points!!

54.3 to 45.7

Not sure what that equals out to for delegates though. The whole delegate thing is so confusing.

In any case, yes, it's a victory for Hillary but it's not big enough in the end considering a few weeks ago she was being polled as being double ahead of Obama than what she actually won. Those polls were either wrong, OR Obama spent enough dough to close that gap (I would say it's the later). He needed to do so to ensure that she couldn't claim it as a "decisivie" victory because it wasn't. She could've won by more and I think once the delegates are added she's not going to be much further along than she was before. And she's got up hill battles from here on out.

as i said to kelly last night as Hillary spoke, I never would've imagined that McCain would have such a good chance at winning in November just a couple of years ago. Watching all of those people in the Obama rally last night, I started to wonder how many of them will refuse to vote in Nov if Obama loses the nomination simply out of anger and frustration of the Dem Party. Obama isn't winning the blue-dog Dems - Hillary is - so if Obama wins the nomination, most of those votes will go to McCain. A state like Pennsylvania is a good example of a state that could easily vote for McCain in the general because of its makeup.

BTW - CBS News is saying Hillary netted 13. Good prediction, Herofix! We should go into business! :)

Jordan .

It seems like we're going to have to wait for the dust to settle a little bit before we can get the exact final figure.  I hate that about these news outlets - they think we only want to know who won the popular vote - they don't understand us election junkies.  By 'us election junkies' I think I just mean me and Jordan as far as this board is concerned. :)

The remaining fraction of votes are in Philly and environs, so though the 'double digit' victory is being blathered and slathered over by the punditocracy, it seems that the margin of victory will be less than 10%, and for that, I'm very pleased.  I think the final delegate count will be Clinton +12 or fewer.  Which, all in all, means she's got less chance than ever, really.  

North Carolina should be a cinch, I guess Indiana is a toss-up (though I feel a bit optimistic there).  Every chance for Obama to regain the delegates Clinton picked up tonight.  Of course, more to the point, his large lead in delegates is still very much intact, and we are running out of delegates in play to fight for.  

On that other metric the Clinton campaign wanted to use to argue for superdelegates to break the party, the popular vote, she won't get any joy there either.  She picked up 200,000 votes, leaving Obama about 600,000 in the lead, and the rest of the calender looks like a draw both in terms of delegates and popular vote.  Always bearing in mind of course, that these popular vote figures do not include Iowa, Maine, Nevada or Washington state.

Guam (I don't have a Scooby)

North Carolina (Obama)

Indiana (Push?)

Kentucky (Clinton)

West Virginia (Clinton)

Oregon (Obama)

Puerto Rico (God only knows)

South Dakota (Obama)

Montana (Obama)

I think a combination of the last debate, the "bitter" quote, Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers information kept O from getting a closer finish in PA.

Indiana is crucial for Hillary's case now and O is ahead in that state's polls. We shall see.

I hear what you're saying Raymondo, but I don't think it cost him any votes he had - more likely it killed any chance he had of swinging anyone who was wavering towards him from the Hillary demographic - i.e, blue-collar whites, Catholics, seniors, etc.

The one bleak spot for this Obama supporter this campaign has been watching him get absolutely killed - just creamed - time and time again in Appalachia. He owns the northwest, rural west, midwest, rural New England, deep south in this contest, but anywhere people describe as 'hard-scrabble', former mining towns, closed factories, etc., the local Democrats give him no love. It bugs me even more 'cause I know he's not any weaker on their issues than Clinton - in my mind he's much stronger when you throw in Clinton's Wal-Mart union busting and Nafta baggage.

The Clinton wins in West Virginia and Kentucky are going to be her biggest blowouts since Arkansas. I'll just read 'em and weep.  Fortunately, this race is SO over, anyway, when everything is considered.

:)

Right, but they conveniently forget to add that they're not counting Iowa, Maine or Washington state.  And you're only counting Michigan insofar as the votes for Hillary, not the people who came out specifically to vote against her.  When you're running against Denis Kucinich and Joe Biden (who'd already dropped out) on the ballot and  the rockstar and the Aquavelva man aren't named, you have to have some serious chutzpah to try to make that case.  Lucky for her, she's got it. 

Damn, I just bit, didn't I? :) 

 Rev. Wright is all over the news again.

This guy can do more damage to O than......Bill Clinton does to Hillary.

Eh, let 'em play it out.  Folks know what's going on.  I take it they're talking about his service as a U.S. Marine, right?

You know i thought Wright would have mentioned his service as a Marine, but he apparently didn't and he did little to soften those clips IMO going by the clips I saw of him with Moyers. If I was running the two DEm's campaigns I would ask both Wright and Bill Clinton to stay off the news !! Bill actually waved that boney white finger and said the O backers were playing the race card as he admonished the press. Geez. 

So they will play it out as this contest goes on and on and on -at least two more months.  

lucky for her my psychic self has been predicting this for years...... hope she wins even better if these two would just team up..... i'll wait and look forward to reading all her wins as well.

:)

Just watched the first 40 minutes of what I think was an hour-long Obama interview with Chris Wallace on Fox. For the most part, I think he handled himself very well. Like the guy, but....

I'm not so keen on the middle class being arbitrarily capped at $75,000/per annum income. Ouch! Recently the Wall Street Journal had a comparison shopping article on what $400,000 will get you in housing across the US. In Detroit you get a 5000' 3-story mansion with 7 bedrooms and 5 baths. In Manhattan that same sum gets you a "cozy" 400 square foot studio apartment with an $873/month maintenance fee! Laundry room in the basement shared by other tenants. Oh the disparity!  The apartment has a Murphy bed!  Do you people know what a Murphy bed is???  It folds up into the wall by day so you have space to walk around your 20 x 20 cubicle! 

Point being -- $100,000 a year is not wealthy in cities like New York, San Francisco or Los Angeles. Location, location Raising income tax on this income bracket would be very rough especially when considering the already high 10% additional California state taxes. Democrats go out an pander to those "bitter" Midwesterners telling them they're going to hit those wealthy 6-figure earners. They do not consider the differential in cost of living in certain parts of the USA when they suggest 50-65% taxation on "wealthy" people.

Oh well. John McCain is bound to drive the tax point home when the general election campaign gets going.

Btw, if by some miracle Hillary Clinton is the Dem candidate, I wonder if John McCain may call upon her to engage in a 90 minute no-moderator debate. You know whose idea this was originally? Newt Gingrich proposed it a couple years ago. I like the concept but it would have been more effective 20 or more Democratic debates ago.

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

Oh, man, have you heard about Hillary picking the filly in today's Kentucky Derby?!  The poor horse finished second but broke two ankles and was euthanized right after the race.  Another reason horse racing should be banned.  Sickening! 

But it might also be a sign of things to come when the only female in the race finishes second...

Susan 

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

Kelly and I watched part 1 of Bill O'Reilly's interview with Hillary from last week. It was really good -- I'm sure it's on YouTube somwhere.

In that same show, Dick Morris said that Hillary ended up netting 10 delegates in PA. I was off by 1.

WOW!! Now this was close!

Jordan .

What's the spread on Tuesday's races, you prognosticators? 

I just watched the bulk of an hour long interview (only one commercial break) with Tim Russert and Obama on Meet the Press.  I don't know how many voters watch that show.  8:00 am Sunday morning and all.  But there should be time for other programming to discuss the essence of the conversation.  I thought he came across well.  Natural.  Real.  And explained himself in context of the Rev.Wright kerfluffle in a clear and understandable way which may help him.  I really hope this doesn't define (a term he repeatedly used) his candidacy in the long term.  Some issues are hard to rise above in a short term unlike all Clinton issues which date back to the 20th century.  

North Carolina?  Indiana?  Whatja got?

Susan 

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

Musings from the sidelines...

I can't say I have my finger on the pulse of the state as a whole, but I did my part by casting my absentee ballot for Obama. As a youngun of 19, this is my first time voting in a major election, and the first election in my life where I've felt... *gulp* HOPE for the outcome.

Hilary came up to Asheville (about an hour away from my school), and was met by a pretty good turnout. Bill, too. Barack has not paid a visit, but Michelle has. Campus here at Western Carolina is slathered with Obama swag (covering up the former Ron Paul endorsements). Very little visible Clinton or McCain support.

So there're my own observations, for what they're worth.

Logic Hat Online- logichat.org

I thought I had a better grasp of the results a couple of weeks ago in NC and IN but now I'm not sure...

Obama will win NC by about 7 points. Barack will net 8 delegates.

Clinton will win Indiana by about 6 points. Hillary will net 7 delegates.

The contests will pretty much equal each other out.

Gotta agree with Dick Morris on all this -- Obama will be the nominee. The only thing that might change is some big news about Obama's dealings with other people that will be even bigger than Wright. His pastor has really hurt him, and his pastor will ultimately affect his ability to win the presidency, and even if he does win the presidency, that skeleton is going to be right there for the next 4 years and it's going to be tough to get rid of it.

Jordan .

Prediction: North Carolina - Obama by 10

Indiana: Obama by the tiniest fraction imaginable (what the hell, I'm feeling optimistic today)

No predictions on delegates, I've been away from teh interweb tubes.  I got myself a new job.  So these predictions are maybe just more hopeful guesses. 

A thin win huh ? O won Guam's vote by 7. Now that is thin !

Anyway , disappointed that O wants to push an increase in capital gains tax from 15 to 25%. He also, like Hillary, wants extra taxes on oil companies. I'm afraid that may reduce oil supplies by decreasing incentive. I wonder if these folks would tax small natural gas producing companies (like those i own). Natural gas burns pretty clean and domestic reserves are plentiful. I am all for conservation ( I now walk when I can instead of using the car)and solar is cool with me but we need oil and gas now. Am I wrong? Thanks.

You shouldn't be surprised by the capital gains tax. Obama pretty much believes that only "the rich" have capital gains.

Yeah, taxing oil companies for their "profits" will just backfire. I'm still not sure how profit is being defined -- does that mean the total amount they brought in BEFORE or AFTER paying out their expenses for the year? And if it's "BEFORE" then what is their gross income/profit after paying all their expenses? I have this gut-feeling that news and politicians are throwing around "profit" incorrectly.

Anyway, I've been pushing for the federal gas tax removal for 2 years now. I wrote my congressmen last year about this and they all responded back with "blah blah blah." I know 18cents/gallon isn't huge but it's still some. And if the states follow suit behind the feds, we can easily see a 50 cent drop in some states!

Jordan .

The way it's looking at this moment is 20 point lead for Obama (59-39) in NC and a 6 point lead for Hillary in Indiana.  But, uh, whose ahead??? 

The race goes on...

Susan 

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

Jordan .

Yeah, but Hillary won Indiana, Jordan.  By 2. 

Where's Belladawna?

Susan 

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin