I've believed for awhile that America is more ready for a African-American than we are ready for a woman president.

Speaking of women running for the presidency - I bet many would be surprised that the first woman to run for president was in 1872! Victoria Woodhull didn't have much success, but she gave it a try.

Jordan .

That's why the added term "viable" is attached to such candidates as in "first viable woman" (as in Hillary Clinton) or "first viable African-American."  (as in President Palmer)

Susan 

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

D-Day...(or as it's been nicknamed C-Day)

Found a really good article over at RealClearPolitics talking about the Obama/Clinton scenario. Give it a read.

Jordan .

Read this (2 pages, but a short read) and then play with this calculator.

Jordan .

Well, has a more insane amount of money, effort and time ever been spent on a lousy (circa) EIGHT delegates?  Good lord.  After all that, Clinton chips into his lead by eight (very possibly less) delegates.  He could make that up in Wyoming and Mississippi.

She's playing for momentum, perception, super-delegates and seating MI/FL now.  She's going to need all of them.  She's going to try to wring this away with whatever means she has to use.  I still don't think it's going to be enough, but God is it going to make me weary.

P.S. Jordan,

That Slate calculator is actually too kind to Clinton for various reasons.  The Newsweek article has the right idea, but they are underestimating exactly how difficult it is to pick up a positive delegate difference without blowouts. 

Doncha just love politics?! 

I watched American Idol last night. (Gawd, I detest that wussy-boy Daniel Noriega!)

Believe it or not, the two elimination processes share a lot.

Disappointing results last night.  I too fear four years of the unnatural cackle and the shrill crescendo of her passion. 

The next biggie is April 22 in Pennsylvania with 187 Dem Delegates.

Looks like it's going to be a knock-down, dragged-out match-up, huh?

Susan 

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

"(Gawd, I detest that wussy-boy Daniel Noriega!)"

LOL!!!   Vote for the Worst has him as their choice.

The longer this thing runs, and the more divisive it becomes, the better chance there is for McCain come November since he can stay out of the fray and let the Dems destroy themselves internally. Mathematically, it's almost impossible for Hillary to win at this point, unless she grabs a ton of super-delegates through charm and/or dark-room deals.

Pennsylvania is the only state that she has any chance of winning. The rest are dominantly African-American or in areas of the country where Obama has done well so far. She will take this all the way to the end - I do believe that!

Jordan .

herofix

Clinton?  ...MILF you say???   Ohhh.....MI/FL. 

Doesn't pay to skim-read I guess - and I was right in the middle of breakfast!! 

Oh my God, what evil have you put into my head?!? Haha. Moving very swiftly on....

My good ol' buddies down at the Obama HQ sent me an e-mither tonight. Apparently Hillary got 4 delegates. I've seen a very compelling case made that Hillary has almost no chance of ending Pennsylvania with anything better than +7. What is she fighting for?

Jordan, bear in mind that Kentucky and West Virginia might be favourable to her. Still, no big delegate pick-ups there. Puerto Rico????? Who knows? Anyway, she just can't possibly win on pledged delegates anymore. At all. That's like, a fact, man.

She won't get more than 55% of the popular vote in eiter state, IMO. if it comes down to 55/45, then we are only talking her picking up 7 new delegates (and that's based on the Delegate Calculator at Slate).

If he wins 55/45 in both states, then you're talking about 11 extra delegates for Obama, so that's a net 4 more for Obama if she does fine in WV and KY so it's almst a wash in favor of Obama.

The Slate Calculator still seems to indicate that it's all up-hill for Hillary. Mathematically, I just don't see her being able to do it. She better be throwing more than a kitchen sink at this point.

Jordan .

Tomorrow morning Obama is giving a speech which is supposedly going to address the Rev. Wright situation.  I'm afraid he is up a creek.  No paddle.  I think it's over.

Are you non-Americans watching this play out?  

Coffins.  Nails.  Fat ladies singing. Fini.  86.  Over and out.

Susan 

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

"We cannot allow a mine shaft gap"

as you well know, Danwhy, people find a church that reflect their values and their beliefs. If Obama has been a member of this church for 10+ years, then we have to assume he knew the kind of sermons that his pastor gave. So we have to ask - does Obama have the same beliefs and values as his pastor and the church have? I remember growing up, we would have a number of people leave for even the slightest comment made by my dad. Here you got a pastor of a LARGE church screaming a racist message, and Obama suposedly stays in the church. why?

His campaign uninvited the pastor at one point from a ceremony of sorts. Why? Probably because they knew of the sermons he gave, and didn't want Obama to get involved in this.

I'm not sure his campaign is over -- we'll have to see how the superdelegates respond. But there's no doubt, if he is nominated, and he goes into the general election against McCain, his pastor's sersmons will be a hot button -- depending upon how he responds today. And I have a feeling, today's speech is gonna be a good one from Obama.

Jordan .

i don't often read speeches but when i do, the four years of communication classes come back and I read it from a critical eye. I just finished reading Obama's speech today, and it was brilliant. I'm sure he came across wonderful on the TV screen, but the speech itself in black and white is a very nice, well-done speech. Where most politicians would've tried to triangulate themsleves, Obama pretty much said, I knew about my pastor's beliefs, and I disagree with him, and I stuck around because there's more to the man than his political beliefs. He gently critiiczed his preacher which is EXACTLY what he needed to do.

No, you can forget his campaign faltering for this. From this speech alone, I think he solidified himself as the nominee for his party.

Jordan .

hillary all the way baby.... lmao

*ducks and runs fer cover*

All the way where? To the Democratic Convention?

Yes, indeed, it's looking like the nomination may be hers. I'm always most interested in the general well-being of the United States more than the horse race, even if the latter can be a lotta laughs along the way.

But I'm afraid this will not be "LOL" funny or fun. The repercussions from this Obama downfall could be massive. Yeah. The guy who was widely credited with being the "Post-Racial Candidate" is intimately involved with an aging relic of the worst combination of paranoid, conspiratorial-thinking, hostile, anti-Whitey rhetoric. But there will be many who formulate different theories about the how and the why of Barack Obama's fall.

This.

Is.

Bad.

And not just for Obama. I feel for the guy so much but I feel more for what it means to the country. Right now McCain is way ahead of Hillary in the polls and that is a scary notion. Not President McCain, but the inevitable controversies to come of tampering with voting machines, fixed elections, "I'm leaving the US" declarations and covers of foreign publications asking "How Can __ Million Americans Be So Stoopid?" Again. Evening in America. Oh, I shudder to think of it.

Dammit!

There's a complete story out there. Somewhere deep within the inner psyche of the man, Obama, and his wife, who wrote her master's thesis on "my blackness" or some such similar subject... somewhere there's an explanation of how Barack Obama ended up compliant in this arrangement. Could it have been as simple as wanting to please an attractive but cantankerous woman? Finding the nurturing father figure who believed in him while not being sufficiently wary of the Reverend's own personal political ambitions? If the real reasons could be revealed, would they be believed? Whatever drew Obama to voice one vision of America with such reassuring clarity but to so closely associate himself with another so oppositional is a paradox. I doubt that any explanation will be sufficient.

And so, the hope dies.

Await the conspiracies of who/what made it "happen." Sigh. This could be OJ times a hundred or more. Me? I'm bracing myself and dreading it. Not very LOL funny to me.

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has moved into a significant lead over Barack Obama among Democratic voters, according to a new Gallup poll.

The March 14-18 national survey of 1,209 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters gave Clinton, a New York senator, a 49 percent to 42 percent edge over Obama, an Illinois senator. The poll has an error margin of 3 percentage points.

i agree with that 99.9%.... it wasn't meant as a LOL but more so as a laughing my arse off due to how the media is spinning this guy(obama) as some god or something... to me this feels like a rodney king race riot if and when the "end" gets near. i like the guy don't get me wrong, but i'm feeling some horrible race issues that cannot even be discussed due to the obvious seriousness of the topic. this primary has blown way out of proportion race and gender and turned into a huge race election and not even about who is the best candidate. to me, in my opinion anyhow, this scares the hell out of me and i'm seeing the OJ reference as well as what i call the rodney king level of violence here.... so, yeah it's not funny in the "haha" sense but funny how this country is totally blinded by this tony robbins-esque speaker of a man. he cannot run the country, in my opinion, yet. he can't handle it and hasn't got the experience. i'm so afraid of mccain it's not even funny. 

i mean what person in their right or left mind even for that matter can still want troops in iraq??!?! he's very scary to me and i'd wager that hillary could beat him hands down and even better if her and obama would team up. but i've been saying that like a broken record for like ever. at least we(as a country) know what to expect and will get from hillary ya know?! i'm just so upset and scared over how this is going to end up. there is more to running the country besides speeches!!! i mean even john lennon and kennedy inspired people by more than their speeches/music. his "on the fence like decision making" scares me to the point of what will he do if there is (god forbid) another issue on usa soil eh? i know what the hell hillary would do so i don't even have to ask her haha.... but ya know what i mean??? i'd take her(and not even because she's a woman, she's got more gnall than half the men in office today LMAO).... just feels right and it's her time. obama can run in the next election after being her vice president eh? haha

but what do i know? i'm just some one who's as concerned as everyone else with what's happening with our world, environment and livelihood as human beings in this messed up world. a change would do us all good and i'm rooting for hillary for that.

Obama has already won the nomination, unless something quite epic happens.

Factor in the superdelegates... 

Factor in the Florida delegates as they stand...

Factor in the Michigan delegates as they stand...

Include all of the superdelegates for Clinton from Florida and Michigan...

Do not assign any of the 'uncommited' vote in Michigan to Obama... 

Do not move any of Edwards pledged delegates to Obama, despite all of them in Iowa moving to Obama...

And Obama is STILL ahead in the delegate race.

There is no way that I can concieve of that Obama can lose the Democratic nomination, short of being found with a live boy or a dead girl, as the saying goes.  Reverend Wright is not enough. 

Certainly, no one with any eye on the electoral math finds it remotely concievable that Clinton could catch Obama in pledged delegates at the end of voting.  So...maybe the superdelegates will move en masse to give the contest to the candidate who came second, but just stop and consider the fallout from that for one moment.  If you think that the Democratic party could ever count on anything like the same loyalty from their very loyal block of black voters in the General Election or in fact ever again, you're not reading this situation like I am.   Democrats are sometimes very very stupid, but all of the superdelegates are politicians or party officials, and if there is one thing they look after it is their own interests.  Obama being better for Democrats down-ticket is simply the icing on the cake.

"We cannot allow a mine shaft gap"