Jordan, we do seem to always find ourselves in agreement.  Only I don't think it will be close.  Pretty sure that here in California we'll know the result before dinner time.  Not going to be one of those late night wait until the morning to find out who won kinda affairs.

I think it's over and done.  Like Chick Hearn used to say, it's in the refrigerator.  The door is closed.  Etc. It's all over but the clean-up.

 McCain was embarrassing last night, I thought, and did not serve his candidacy well.  For me, I was trying hard to like him mostly because I REALLY don't like the taxation plan from Obama.  In California where state taxes are 10% and the city also taxes, his top income bracket tax of 39.5% will mean for an income of $250,000 a year -- not a fortune in Los Angeles -- you'll be paying out 50% to government entities. 

I.

Do.

NOT.

Like this!!!

 Furthermore, I don't think it will help the economy, but perhaps nothing outside of time will. Since taxes are one of life's certainties, I'm hoping the other certainty -- death -- holds off a few more years so I live long enough to see taxes lowered again.

Taxing big corporations (and small businesses) as a way to "sock it to the big boys" nana nah na na -- will also hurt those 60% of Americans with 401K's and otherwise invested in the stock market regardless if they are in the $250K+ tax bracket themselves.  

It's pretty dismal.  Obama will be saddled with problems he cannot fix but so it goes. But there will be a brief honeymoon as well. 

Sigh.  Alright.

The deed is done.  

The butter is getting hard.

The fat lady is singing.

Hopefully, a fur-clad Aretha will not be singing at this year's inauguration ball but one thing's certain... it won't be this guy. 

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

I don't want war, I love peace *rub* *rub* 

lol

Pretty weird to have that little guy by the drums there.

Jordan .

Well, turns out Joe the plumber doesn't actually have a license to plumb and also owes back taxes, he will likely go away quickly.  I still don't think the fat lady has sung though.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/16/joe-plumber-owes-taxes/

"We cannot allow a mine shaft gap"

I'm thinking John McCain is to the Republicans this time around what John Kerry was to the Democrats in 2004 -- the guy no one in the party actually wanted as their candidate.  The guy no one actually voted for in the primary either.

 Pretty funny when you consider they were 'almost' a team back then...

Susan

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

 What a seriosly poor candidate McCain is.

Even though his successful nomination by Republicans won me £170 ( thanks to the guys on this thread ) there would be something seriously wrong if this incompetent old fool gets any further.

 That was my prediction from August 3rd.  I guess I have to stick with it, right?

P.S.

This is just about as handy as anything: www.270towin.com

Herofix - feel free to keep your prediction.  

Here's the thing, WHO Joe is doesn't matter. He's not a certified plumber (I'm sure there are thousands like him out there with no certification who are under a master plumber) and he owes back taxes (so do US Congressmen and thousands of Americans). WHO Joe is doesn't matter. What Obama said DOES matter in the end, and I think it's the only thing at this point that might derail him. And the media and liberal blogs attacking Joe isn't helping Obama any with the on-the-fence crowd.

 Americans generally do not like the idea of socialism, and they don't like the idea of spreading the wealth thus "punishing those who are successful." Link. Now things could've changed a lot since that poll in June, but highly doubtful. Americans, I believe, just don't see the idea of spreading the wealth as a fair thing. They want things to be fair, yes, but fair doesn't equal spreading the wealth.

This past week, seems like the media has been looking at what a Obama/Reid/Pelosi govt might look like. It will be the most liberal, most socialistic-leaning govt the US has ever seen. And top it off with the Dems gaining seats -- possibly getting a supermajority, there's nothing stopping them. If the media keeps talking about this, and starts suggesting very liberal policies that the trio will push through, you might begin to see more of a shift back to McCain.

Americans like fairness, but they also don't like giving govt free reign -- that's why it's rare to see Congress and the White House all being run by a single party. We might see it this time around - but I'll predict right now - it will only last 2 years!

RealClearPolitics is showing a tightening - there's no doubt. I honestly think it has something to do with Obama's response to Joe. And as long as the GOP keep pushing the idea that Obama is a socialist, McCain MIGHT have a chance.

Jordan .

...but then this morning on Meet the Press (gawd, how I hate seeing Tom Brokow in Tim Russert's seat!), Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama.  He gave a fine set of reasons.  If you can find it on line, it's worth watching. 

Whatever anyone has said about "negative campaigns" this time around, I think it's silly. This seems to me to have been a pretty gentle campaign especially compared to 2000 and 2004 (ouch!).  If you don't count the brutal and relentless attacks on the feckless whipping girl Sarah Palin, it's been downright sweet.  And if we could compare the political commentary right here on the Gazette to the previous two presidential election cycles, that tone is also evident. 

I am hopeful that Barack Obama will take his time with his foolhearty taxation program which is my greatest reservation against him.  My fave weekend radio show 'Money Talk with Bob Brinker' reiterated yesterday that it is his taxation plan where Obama is weakest and the one where John 'I don't know anything about the economy' McCain has let his opponent slide.  Brinker said you could ask any economist worldwide and they would across the board say that raising taxes at this time is a bad decision.  Hopefully, one of those economists will have Obama's ear between now and January and he may not institute his philosophical academic philosophy on a hurting nation.

Not that I expect a financial fix in 2009 regardless of who takes office here or anywhere in the world.  We've got some down time ahead. 

Susan, whose opinions have nothing to do with the $60.00 I will win as a result of an Obama win

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

 I wouldn't put too much stock in a short-term tightening of the race.  Obama is probably pretty close to  a ceiling, and its not realistic to expect his poll numbers to keep going up.  Which means any movement will be downward.

 It's definitely amusing to think of the democrats as extreme left-wingers.  Pelosi is facing her strongest re-election challenge in quite some time, and its from the left, not the right.  I just watched Colin Powell on CNN.com saying that any tax system is a redistribution of wealth, and people calling Obama a socialist are missing the point.  With 10 trillion in debt and almost a trillion deficit, somebody's got to pony-up.

Gore and Kerry were both at points referred to as extreme liberals bordering on socialists though Jordan.  It's just a kind of everyday type GOP talking point.

I was very surprised, and not a little gratified to watch the clip of Powell talking about 'socialism'.  What he said seems to me a very mainstream view, albiet not within his own party.  That view does seem to be mainstream in places Ohio and Pennsylvania from what I can tell, polling which shows Americans aren't comfortable with wealth redistribution notwithstanding.

"Gore and Kerry were both at points referred to as extreme liberals bordering on socialists though Jordan.  It's just a kind of everyday type GOP talking point."

Yes, it's a GOP talking point to accuse many Dems at socialists. I wouldn't consider Kerry a socialist though. And Gore in some of his ideas did border on socialism. The difference with Obama is that he is NOT bordering on socialism. :-) He's way on the other side, IMO - the socialist border isn't even in sight.

Jordan .

I'm just posting here so that I can have the 600th post in the politics forum.

Woo!!

Kelly

How Do You Live Your Dash?

Check out the Kids' blogs:
The CaleBlog and the Zoe Blog

Well, some might say that part-nationalising the banks and massive insurance conglomerates borders on socialism, but far be it from me to make snarky points about what happened with W. :)

If you believe in taxation at all, then in some ways, you accept certain tenets about 'society', even if you only believe in road-building and the military as proper reasons to tax us.  Some people don't even believe in building roads that way, I suppose.

Anyways, long story short, Obama's no socialist in the usual way of using that word.  What's more, I'm sure you know that. So there *sticks tongue out*.  If you had a 6 foot long ruler where the extreme end of the left side represented pure unadulterated communism as envisioned in theory, and the extreme right side represented Ayn Rand and a completely individualistic non-society of solitary agents with no regard for anyone else - John McCain, Barack Obama, Tony Blair, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, John Kerry and Bernie Sanders would probably all be within 7 or 8 inches of each other, somewhere in the middle.  

I'm really pleased with myself for that analogy!

You're right, he's not a full-fledged Socialist. I agree. He's the American version. :-) LOL!

And needless to say I've been not too happy with some of the recent events that we have done regarding our banks and these bailouts.

Taxes are a necessary evil, IMO. And I'm okay with programs that better the country, better people, and better society. But there has to be a limit and there has to be a better way in most cases, but thats' for a whole more detailed discussion.

Jordan .

If Obama wins, which looks likely, as the loyal opposition I will support him and hope he does well. But I will vote for " Granpa Simpson and the milf " ( thanks to 12 for a good LOL ).

Joe Biden's prediction of an international crisis within 6 months may well be true. So, electing inexperienced Obama as Commander-in-Chief will insure big trouble as Joe guarantees. Biden suggested the test that JFK faced as an example. That would be the Cuban Missile Crisis- the closest the world came to all out nuclear war ! Now, is a provocative test Obama will surely face, per Joe, something to vote for ? Yikes. When Hugo Chavez, Raoul, Al Queda, Hamas, and Achmaninijihad are all on board for Obama to win it does give one pause, no?

I also believe Obama and a Dem Congress will be an impediment to the economy's recovery. E.g. small business that O will target creates the lion's share of jobs. What's that old saw? Cut off the nose to spite the face.

So, the only areas of concern for me re Obama are domestic and international. That doesn't leave much else : ).

So I heard this on fox news on my way home from work today and I find it rather facinating.

All the polls suggest that Obama has a BIG lead (5-6% and in some cases double digits, depending on what poll), so this makes the following poll a little interesting.

http://www.nick.com/kpp/

I think this might be a more actual account as to how the election is going to come down to.

1) adults are going to skew the results when they are talking to pollsters because of how everything is today. They aren't going to tell the truth about it because of the backlash they may receive. Not in all cases, but I would say the vast majority.

2) at home, adults are going to actually say their true feelings without having to worry about whether they are being judged by a pollster. Kids pick this up and in turn pick the candidate. Adults are teaching them about poltics, but actually having a true discussion about politics in general.

Yes, Obama still wins, but the election will not be a landslide as many may think it will be.

Kelly

How Do You Live Your Dash?

Check out the Kids' blogs:
The CaleBlog and the Zoe Blog

Hmm- I  remember a poll in my elementary school on the lead-up to the '80 election.  Approximate Results:

Carter: 65

Anderson(?) 4

Regan: 4

...
I've become a fan of fivethirtyeight.com.  Today Nate Silver called McCain's recent gains a "Dead Cat Bounce". 

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1021.html 
 

Are polls ever really an accurate indicator?  I mean, who do they ask?  I've gotten one phone call from a pollster in my life, and they only asked if I was voting, not for whom.  I hope all this confidence in Obama gets some reverse psychology action going on the college campuses.  "Of course he's going to win. I wouldn't even bother putting down the bong on election day." 

Good call on "the American version," jordan.  It's all a slippery slope when it comes to government interference. Give em an inch, as we Yanks like to say. 

     
“Half a truth is often a great lie.”

Ben Franklin

I've learned it's also the pollster.

I like Rasmussen. He does a nice daily tracking poll and his poll numbers seem fairly close -- compared to the sometimes horrible polls of the newspapers around the country.

Zogby leans a tad left IMO but he would be the other one I watch.

Which is another reason I go to www.realclearpolitics.com. The site averages out all the polls which hopefully will give you a better number than just any single poll. The problem of course is when USA Today's poll shows 14 points and it skews the average.

This year, like the last two elections, the media kept talking about the new voters, and the "college vote." Seems like the college vote has yet to materialize in the last two elections. If history is any indication, once again, the "college vote" won't have much an effect which means the race could be tighter than the media wants to believe. Still could result in an electoral landslide (at least we can avoid the entire voter fraud issue then) though.

BTW - you also have to pay attention as to WHEN the poll was taken. Historically, weekend polls lean Democrat, and you'll find that many polls are taken over a weekend.

Jordan .

Here's a nice run-down on all the major polls.

 http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html

Any idea why people feel more democratic on the weekend? Is it that republicans are more likely to be home during the week?

 edit:

Most of the polls use historical rates of voting (likely voters).  I'm not sure whether college students are still going to vote in retardedly-low numbers (except apparently at Jerry Fallwell's school), but there's pretty good indication that african americans are going to vote at higher than normal rates, which in some locations will more than offset college students.  I don't think anyones saying Georgia will go blue, but that one will be much closer than people think.